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#12
10-12-2005, 02:51 PM
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Re: $55: Overpair in level 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I am a fan of folding this preflop after the raise. [/ QUOTE ] This has to be incredibly wrong. [/ QUOTE ] Oops! You have a leak... Yugoslav 
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#13
10-12-2005, 02:53 PM
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Re: $55: Overpair in level 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] To those who advocate folding preflop - I like a coldcall. You are way getting the implied odds to stack someone when you hit your set. [/ QUOTE ] Why? You are betting 60 after the raise, you hit a set once every 8.5 times on the flop, and you might get paid off one out of two times you hit the set. It's still reasonable, but it's not completely obvious. [/ QUOTE ] I think with 1 raiser and 4 cold callers there is a good chance someone will pair their overcards or already has a pocket pair and will at least make up the difference to make it a good call. I don't think it's obvious either at first, but to an astute player it should be. You'll get paid way more than 1 in two times where you hit a set in this spot. You'll stack someone or get a multiway pot one time in two and at least get some chips (equal to what you need to make the call right) when you hit your set more often that 1 in 2 times when you hit in this situation. Sorry for the ramble. The odds are there though. Folding is bad. (odds of hitting a set or better here, 7.5:1, real pot odds here, 4.375:1, the call is easy)
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#14
10-12-2005, 03:07 PM
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Re: $55: Overpair in level 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] To those who advocate folding preflop - I like a coldcall. You are way getting the implied odds to stack someone when you hit your set. [/ QUOTE ] Why? You are betting 60 after the raise, you hit a set once every 8.5 times on the flop, and you might get paid off one out of two times you hit the set. It's still reasonable, but it's not completely obvious. [/ QUOTE ] I think with 1 raiser and 4 cold callers there is a good chance someone will pair their overcards or already has a pocket pair and will at least make up the difference to make it a good call. I don't think it's obvious either at first, but to an astute player it should be. You'll get paid way more than 1 in two times where you hit a set in this spot. You'll stack someone or get a multiway pot one time in two and at least get some chips (equal to what you need to make the call right) when you hit your set more often that 1 in 2 times when you hit in this situation. Sorry for the ramble. The odds are there though. Folding is bad. (odds of hitting a set or better here, 7.5:1, real pot odds here, 4.375:1, the call is easy) [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, good point about the current pot odds, I missed that for some reason. But remember you could still *lose* if you hit the set, and maybe lose your whole stack. You have to factor that into the 1 out of 2 figure I used for implied odds. I didn't word that idea well in my initial response, obviously. In any case, you've convinced me it's a call [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#15
10-12-2005, 03:23 PM
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Re: $55: Overpair in level 1
Well said. This call is incredibly easy. To all the PF folders, you do realize that NL is all about implied odds right? At any rate, even if you miss the set, you still have chips to play with. A good player can take a chance early and still win.
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#17
10-12-2005, 03:40 PM
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Re: $55: Overpair in level 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I am a fan of folding this preflop after the raise. [/ QUOTE ] This has to be incredibly wrong. [/ QUOTE ] Oops! You have a leak... Yugoslav [/ QUOTE ] QFT And for what it's worth. If I happened to misclick and/or make a terrible play and see the flop after that raise, I'd still check/fold.
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#18
10-12-2005, 03:43 PM
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Re: $55: Overpair in level 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I am a fan of folding this preflop after the raise. [/ QUOTE ] This has to be incredibly wrong. [/ QUOTE ] Oops! You have a leak... Yugoslav [/ QUOTE ] QFT And for what it's worth. If I happened to misclick and/or make a terrible play and see the flop after that raise, I'd still check/fold. [/ QUOTE ] Care to elaborate?
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#19
10-12-2005, 03:55 PM
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Re: $55: Overpair in level 1
Sure....
Folding Preflop: Even though I'm closing the action with this call, it is just too much to risk to hit a set right here, which is the ONLY way you will ever extract 1 more chip out of this pot. Combine that with the fact that after you limped UTG, there is a UTG+1 raise and then two MP calls, you are likely dominated anyways. Autofolding the Flop: You are beat here 55-60% (estimate) of the time. (99-AA)
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#20
10-12-2005, 04:01 PM
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Re: $55: Overpair in level 1
You're right that you need to hit a set to win the pot. You are also right that you are likely dominated. Still an easy call though.
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