AA facing heat

Reads: Villian has been making some moves on my continuation bets, since I've had an irritating string of missed unpaired paint that I've had to fold to resistence, so it probably looks like I can be moved off a hand. However, at the same time, villian has also shown down some decent hands, but we (aside from the folds above) haven't really tangled, so a more precise reading is lacking. Thoughts?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($48.45)
Hero ($67.95)
UTG ($99.05)
MP ($29.15)
Button ($50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, UTG calls $2, SB folds.

Flop: ($5.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $10</font>, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($25.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $15.5</font>, Hero calls $15.50.

River: ($56.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

[beavens]

raise to $3 pf.

and you checking the turn is like holding up a big sign to the villain "PLEASE RUN OVER ME". i would lead for 2/3 or 3/4 pot here and lay it down to a raise.

[Morrek]

I'd c/r turn allin considering your read.

You would recommend leading even though that card completes a world of draws? Out of position, it seems more prudent to check it and evaluate. Had the turn been a brick I could see leading out, but here...

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
You would recommend leading even though that card completes a world of draws? Out of position, it seems more prudent to check it and evaluate. Had the turn been a brick I could see leading out, but here...

[/ QUOTE ]

You are thinking about this wrong. It's not what you think of the turn, it's what does villain think of the turn. You have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and with all the Broadway [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the board villain doesn't have a flush and if he does it's a baby one. An open push or check fold are your turn options here. You are drawing to the nuts so a push isn't horrible against two pair.

[PinkSteel]

The problem is, you're OOP, so you have to decide up front if he hit his draw or not. If he did, you're probably toast anyway. But,

(1) you may still have the best hand here;
(2) he doesn't know what you have either, and may believe that you completed a draw;
(3) that [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] gave you a redraw on the river; and
(4) that turn may have GIVEN him a draw, rather than completing one, just like it did for you -- in which case you should price him out right here.