Playing at breakeven

I have been noticing a pattern in my play. I seem to be a breakeven player when I play "smart." My bad run lately has been due to being way too loose and aggressive. Anyways, when I am on my "smart" sessions, I will go up and then come down and go up and come down. I hover just above breakeven. I can never seem to continue having an outstanding session where I walk away feeling like I'm moving in the right direction. Don't get me wrong, anytime I finish a session in the green, I feel good, but I know I can do alot better.

Example: I just played 143 mins, 248 hands, and only won $8.75 on a .50/1$ 6max at EmpirePoker.

Anybody have any advice or thoughts or want me to explain more?

I tend to do this as well. My best suggestion is to pay attention to the tables. Often times I'll go on a nice run, my fish will bust and I'll stay and break even for 30 minutes. If I get down early I like to stay and work it back, however if I get up big quickly and the table isn't right/ I'm playing like crap I have no trouble getting up.

[jt1]

I'm on a .5bb/100 over 30K hands. And I'm pretty sure I'm a winning player.

MicroBob is on a 1000bb downswing and I think he's been a pro for about a year and half or so.

[milesdyson]

you can play pretty damn good poker and still lose money. wait until you lose for 20k hands or something, then start worrying. these super short term results don't reflect anything important.

[imported_leader]

[ QUOTE ]
Anybody have any advice or thoughts or want me to explain more?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're thinking is terribly flawed. You need to read up on statistics and variance. I don't have time to explain the subject, but I will show you a little experiment that will help you understand variance. Let's say you're a break even player. Let's assume you like to play sessions that are 248 hands long. Let's finally assume you have the same standard deviation that I do. i.e. 16.5 BB/100. The fallowing is a hundred randomly generated sessions that use the above info (results are in BB's):

-35.73
49.35
-19.33
-0.44
-18.45
17.08
26.08
52.24
11.94
-47.89
-9.92
-26.62
7.99
-9.02
37.92
23.29
38.83
26.90
11.91
-66.27
-6.81
-2.50
13.36
47.92
32.13
35.06
8.82
-17.77
53.48
-23.75
-15.74
-31.99
-54.14
-5.61
-36.25
0.39
-36.82
-11.35
40.47
6.19
-44.28
4.14
5.66
-6.93
-2.72
25.67
15.19
1.18
-9.19
27.49
-25.54
-12.55
30.56
13.27
19.01
-48.07
-29.62
11.86
-15.24
-8.04
4.28
21.56
16.28
-45.63
14.99
8.16
0.05
17.63
-4.94
-11.67
32.54
-10.64
21.23
-27.96
3.44
59.12
-53.12
9.70
-23.87
25.58
-27.64
-18.04
-44.25
-14.70
-6.93
-28.50
-12.69
24.05
-3.00
-78.16
-29.01
-5.14
10.90
12.30
-22.08
-35.30
15.13
-8.47
26.69
17.06

Let's assume you're a 1BB/100 winner:

-24.81
-38.53
-36.57
35.28
-3.40
10.10
-39.31
-24.54
23.46
37.32
37.12
-27.73
6.70
-73.88
-31.16
22.17
6.54
-15.67
-9.76
-33.84
-37.43
6.67
-0.83
6.26
-26.49
-18.91
-17.90
3.27
-36.17
34.28
-17.66
-0.89
-40.44
-21.58
11.36
40.19
3.98
-12.96
45.00
-21.84
25.51
-10.19
-33.42
31.47
15.17
18.07
-15.54
33.44
-0.23
15.49
-29.92
-2.09
26.79
-7.38
34.82
15.61
30.08
-21.90
10.62
2.77
-15.48
-62.37
-17.89
1.92
38.89
-41.49
19.42
-20.46
3.26
-63.14
-31.81
28.94
-8.16
-0.73
18.73
-15.94
-4.89
-2.80
-10.60
44.76
-29.39
29.68
-24.97
-23.51
-17.79
42.61
8.79
-20.12
-7.96
31.20
-23.23
27.40
30.12
11.96
4.58
-2.35
15.49
-19.75
-31.03
25.66

Let's assume you're a 1BB/100 loser:

23.92
-22.43
-13.54
-6.90
0.68
40.98
-30.55
-44.74
20.28
27.65
-34.23
1.23
-62.43
-32.94
5.21
-40.61
-10.34
-1.46
1.26
27.54
29.12
-25.36
21.43
-4.23
-71.55
9.95
-43.75
-0.24
-18.08
3.15
-13.34
-6.89
2.26
36.79
-0.64
-0.07
-7.86
-3.40
-13.42
13.46
-2.90
-9.17
-0.85
9.52
17.71
3.81
-10.01
5.36
-5.23
19.89
-3.48
-47.16
-0.28
-42.21
-34.57
3.09
7.18
27.83
10.61
-3.38
-17.83
5.66
-8.06
-36.95
7.74
-8.72
-17.02
-4.97
2.56
-12.59
8.43
33.29
-1.74
-20.76
-21.69
-5.75
33.17
-13.03
-51.11
-28.70
0.48
-31.31
22.84
6.51
17.84
-4.28
44.57
11.45
-1.14
-1.50
-7.13
-44.28
-21.07
-8.50
-32.94
-44.01
36.38
14.55
-11.97
6.60

Notice the variation in all of them. Drawing a pattern based on individual sessions is just wrong.

[dealer_toe]

so you ran at like 4bb/100 thats pretty good. 40k hand breakeven/downswings suck. The varience will get a lot worse as you move up limits too.

[Chairman Wood]

Its all one big long session. Continue to make the best poker decision at every single oppurtunity and the money will come.

[ QUOTE ]
Its all one big long session. Continue to make the best poker decision at every single oppurtunity and the money will come.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my biggest problem. I make the stupidest plays when I know I shouldn't.

[Chairman Wood]

[ QUOTE ]
That's my biggest problem. I make the stupidest plays when I know I shouldn't

[/ QUOTE ] You should maybe order Inside the Poker Mind by John Feeney if you haven't read it already.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That's my biggest problem. I make the stupidest plays when I know I shouldn't

[/ QUOTE ] You should maybe order Inside the Poker Mind by John Feeney if you haven't read it already.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't have that book. I am currently reading the Psychology of Poker along with the 2nd time through SSHE. I have read Getting Started in Hold Em, and have the Theory of Poker and Hold Em for Advanced Players coming up next.

I also have HOH 1&2 coming in a few days [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]