To call down or not to call down, part 3

[catlover]

I thought it was more or less routine to see the turn here. But then what? The ten completed some of his possible draws. But he could still be on diamonds. Is this enough reason to pay it off?

PokerStars 30/60 Hold'em (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (15 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP2 folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

[elena_elphie]

UTG probably doesn't have 98, though it is possible, and that's the draw that got there. So I don't see the T helping him all that much. Ax of diamond is certainly a possibility.

We are getting 11.5 to 2 on a call down, so we need to be good around 15% of the time here. We spike a set 5% of the time which is good unless villian did have 98 or KK, neither of which is likely, or AQ which is actually plausable so we only have to be ahead here around 12% of the time to make a calldown profitable, and I think we are.

A read would help here, some UTG would only raise w/ a K or better, but I certainly wouldn't assume that of an unknown 30/60 player.