Continuing on every street, a Party 10/20 hand

James282 · #1 09-23-2005, 02:15 AM

One limper, I make it 80 to go with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in MP. The Sb is the only player that calls. His stats are 13/4/2.3.

200ish in the pot, and the flop is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] He checks, I bet 150, he calls.

Pot is about 500. Turn is the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] He checks, I make it 350, he calls.

River is the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] He checks, I make it 800.

Comments?
-James

tommo · #2 09-23-2005, 02:20 AM

seems like you're spewing chips here to me. Maybe I'm missing something though.

If he called your previous bets he's likely to call the river bet and I don't think your AQ is ahead here.

the 8 isn't really a scare card for him as he probably knows you aren't likely to have it and he probably doesn't have a two pair.

I'm thinking overpair or set. Both of which might call more often than 1/2 the time.

James282 · #3 09-23-2005, 02:32 AM

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seems like you're spewing chips here to me. Maybe I'm missing something though.

If he called your previous bets he's likely to call the river bet and I don't think your AQ is ahead here.

the 8 isn't really a scare card for him as he probably knows you aren't likely to have it and he probably doesn't have a two pair.

I'm thinking overpair or set. Both of which might call more often than 1/2 the time.

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I think you're missing something.
-James

tdarko · #4 09-23-2005, 02:33 AM

why did you make it 800 and not shut this hand down?

mike l. · #5 09-23-2005, 02:33 AM

ok i thought about this hand quite a bit.

you are representing an overpair here. but i think he has AK or a pair and will play both like this and call down with both the whole way. i think you would do well to save the $800 bet on the river for a better chance of getting the fold. i think you get called here too often to make it correct. check the river.

but maybe you could tell me if im missing something. cancel that: maybe you could tell me precisely what im missing. his AF being what it is, it's not actually that high since he's 13/4 right? so he could play AK or 99 or 55 like this right? or no?

thanks in advance.

tdarko · #6 09-23-2005, 02:35 AM

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i think you would do well to save the $800 bet on the river for a better chance of getting the fold.

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this is what my thoughts were but...

James282 · #7 09-23-2005, 02:45 AM

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i think you would do well to save the $800 bet on the river for a better chance of getting the fold.

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this is what my thoughts were but...

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Well I'm new to this whole thing, but I've been pretty successful so far. Basically, he is going to have to call along with 99, 55, TT, JJ until the river because he feels priced in. Guys with those stats can read hands, or so they think. With 99 or 55 he figures he has a lot of live outs against AA or KK, and there's always the possibility I'll check a big ace behind. When the river comes, and I make it 800 more - won't a player of this type have an insanely hard time calling with less than QQ, and probably even QQ? I mean, I really only have AA, KK, QQ, or air here. Hell, most players in this game check behind QQ, so that is a lot less likely than the other 2 big pairs(or a bluff). If someone posted a hand on this forum and they had JJ or worse here, I think the overwhelming consensus would be to dump it at some point - but I could be wrong.
-James

mike l. · #8 09-23-2005, 03:11 AM

"If someone posted a hand on this forum and they had JJ or worse here, I think the overwhelming consensus would be to dump it at some point - but I could be wrong."

yes but that's us. just because the guy is (too?) tight doesnt mean he is thinking on the level we are. he has probably shown a reasonably good profit playing weak tight and letting guys throw money at him when he has a marginal hand here like TT, 99, 55, AK. you will get called by those hands online.

James282 · #9 09-23-2005, 03:18 AM

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"If someone posted a hand on this forum and they had JJ or worse here, I think the overwhelming consensus would be to dump it at some point - but I could be wrong."

yes but that's us. just because the guy is (too?) tight doesnt mean he is thinking on the level we are. he has probably shown a reasonably good profit playing weak tight and letting guys throw money at him when he has a marginal hand here like TT, 99, 55, AK. you will get called by those hands online.

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Dunno if you've played in this game or not, but AK is a virtual impossibility here. In order of likelihood I'd rank him 99, 55, TT, JJ, QQ.
-James

[censored] · #10 09-23-2005, 03:36 AM

his aggression is high enough that if he had a hand he really liked you would have heard about it.

I doubt anything from TT and down calls here,I think your only real worries are JJ & QQ, both of which are possible given his preflop stats. I also think JJ would have a hard time calling here because he would likely expect you to check behind at this point with less but I would not count on a fold.