Play this hand against me

[Steve Giufre]

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Again, it shouldn't matter if i fold or call.

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Why, isnt calling the four bet basically lighting money on fire?

[stoxtrader]

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[ QUOTE ]
Again, it shouldn't matter if i fold or call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why, isnt calling the four bet basically lighting money on fire?

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The mistake in the first place is 3 betting the turn. A stop and go on the river is ok, but depends partly on prior history, a river check/call also ok.

[DcifrThs]

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Party 30/60 10 handed. You know who I am and I know who ou are. A very loose player limps UTG+1. You raise black Queens behind him and I three-bet. The rest of the table is pretty tight, they all fold. Limper cold calls and you cap.

Flop comes 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Sucky limper checks, you bet, I call, limper calls.

Turn is a T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Limper checks, you bet, and now I raise. Limper folds. Your play? Opponent in this hand thought that 3 betting was the right play. Now I fourbet, what's the play now?
-James

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not 3 betting the turn and callin down.

i like it for a number of reasons:

1) how many levels can james think on. how many levels does he know opponent can think on. james turn raise looks strong as hell, AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK(s)/AQ(s)99/TT/88/and MAYBE 77 if he looks behind him, sees nothing but tightwads and tight blinds (bad game except the limper). he sees opp. raise limper and reisolates.

opponent caps and both call, clearly james's opponent here has AA/KK/AK(s)/QQ/JJ from his eyes, and that is about it. the problem with the turn arises preflop where the two ranges of hands are not totally congruent. james recognizes this. if james had 66 on the turn, he'd call the flop gambling that if its a favorable turn: A/K or card that gives him more outs, he can raises and play aggressively to knock his opponent off of QQ/JJ. its a gamble. but QQ/JJ looks like SHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIT after james's turn raise. opponent would have to go a level up and realize that james knows what he has here and is raising INTO a better hand some % of the time. this is where you have to look at your watch after james turn raise with 10.75bbs in the pot and say i need to call here 13.56% of the time and be good in order to break even. James knows this and opponent now uses that watch and parces the 60 seconds into about 8 second intervals. now using the watcho n opp hands sucks b/c james knows what is going on and wont bet the river the times he doesn't have a better hand here (JJ/88). anyways, anything divisible into 8ths, pick an 8th and go with it. if it matches call down if not, call and fold the river.

at some point, you have to use some form of game theory to make it indifferent to james whether HE raises here or gives up if he knows what opponent knows.

in the heat of battle thats hard as all hell to do. multitabling especially.

2) you have to let james know he can't push JJ/88 off QQ and that you'll pay off like a slot machine sometimes. this way, next time, unless he 4 levels you (grrrr) you can fold. waste a bet now to save a bet later, unless you'll always use game theory.

lesson. dont ever 3 bet the turn here. it sux.

but you have to call down and lose a lot here so james wont do this (betting the river) as often as you'd like. now if a J hits the river, QQ is 100% no good, no need to call. if a Q does hit, bet. if an A/K here hits its questionable but now from james's perspective that means trouble so it may be worth the bet since he now cannot raise b/c that raise would be as bad as opp's turn raise.

sorry for the long ass post.

-Barron

[andyfox]

You know, it's an auto call-down for me too and I think it's a leak. Maybe it's just that the hands stick in my memory, as hands where we lose with a big overpair to a bigger overpair do, but I have a hard time throwing them away when I "know" I'm beat. (After all, he might have jacks or the other queens right? Feh . . .) Poster says we know him, but I don't know if he's capable of making a play here. But against players who absolutely wouldn't be this frisky with a hand that queens can beat, an auto-call down must be a leak, no?

So ,FWIW, I too just call the turn raise and check-call the river.

[James282]

Hey andy, I think calling down in situations like this is generally a leak as well. Maybe not against me, because I am capable of making a move against an opponent that I think is "good enough" to fold for the final bet on the river, but against most "tight aggressive" but relatively straightforward players(which make up the overwhelming majority of 2+2ers), I think paying off in situations like this is a pretty big leak. Your average 2+2er isn't betting the river with 88 or JJ hoping to get a better hand to fold because they know in these situations a "good player" will almost always call down with a better hand, but fold a worse one. Similarly, most average twoplustwoers wouldn't raise the turn with these hands in the first place.

But, this situation is probably not the best to exemplify my point about paying off rivers for 1 bet after calling the turn with a hand that you aren't drawing correctly for if behind, because I know people will come in with pot size arguments are try to whittle this situation down to being unimportant or much closer than it appears to be on the surface(whereas I believe it is actually less close than it appears on the surface).

A better example of this "call the turn not hoping to improve but folding the river for one bet" comes in a scenario where I see otherwise good players paying off over and over again.

Say you have a smallish pair(44-77) and it's folded to you in late position. You raise and are three-bet by a player who has similar vpip and pfr stats to yours. You haven't noticed him get out of line postflop and deem him generally "solid" but not too tricky or overaggressive. It's folded back to you and you call, deciding to call down unless the board gets too scary. So then, the board doesn't get too scary and you call the turn. Let's say it's J8329 on the river. You check to him and he bets into you. You call down because hey, the board isn't too scary. What % of the time do you think you are good when he bets here? Me, I think it's a huge mistake. Maybe it's night and day from the other hand, but I don't think so. You call the turn hoping you are best, which you very well might be, but I think that once that river bet gets fired you have a whole new set of information. Almost all "good" players will not give you enough credit that they think you can fold a pair or any piece of the board, and will almost always check behind unimproved big aces on the river. OTOH, they will always bet when they are ahead. But alas, I see otherwise good players pay off in situations like these all the time. Maybe they think their reads aren't good enough to make that fold...but reads like that can significantly add to one's hourly rate, IMO.
-James

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
You know, it's an auto call-down for me too and I think it's a leak. Maybe it's just that the hands stick in my memory, as hands where we lose with a big overpair to a bigger overpair do, but I have a hard time throwing them away when I "know" I'm beat. (After all, he might have jacks or the other queens right? Feh . . .) Poster says we know him, but I don't know if he's capable of making a play here. But against players who absolutely wouldn't be this frisky with a hand that queens can beat, an auto-call down must be a leak, no?

So ,FWIW, I too just call the turn raise and check-call the river.

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my thinking and play as well.

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
You know, it's an auto call-down for me too and I think it's a leak. Maybe it's just that the hands stick in my memory, as hands where we lose with a big overpair to a bigger overpair do, but I have a hard time throwing them away when I "know" I'm beat. (After all, he might have jacks or the other queens right? Feh . . .) Poster says we know him, but I don't know if he's capable of making a play here. But against players who absolutely wouldn't be this frisky with a hand that queens can beat, an auto-call down must be a leak, no?

So ,FWIW, I too just call the turn raise and check-call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree. There has to be players who wont make a move in this spot, and are also not capable of raising for value here with JJ after it was capped preflop and led at on the flop and turn. I do think maybe I assumed too much when I first replied to this post though. I guess it depends so much on the past history between these two, so maybe James's opponent cant even think of folding here, I dont know.

Its hands like this that make me miss playing live poker all the time. I cant really see laying it down on the net without a ton of player info, since the computer seems to have a way of making people overplay hands in hopeless spots for some reason. In a B&M game, there are so many other things going on, and I feel like I would have a better chance at making a good laydown.

BTW have you been playing much? I'd like to make it out your way soon for some poker.

[andyfox]

Good arguments. When I first read Sklansky (I think) write about this, I was skeptical. After all, you're getting X:1 and why call the turn if you're not going to call the river? But there are so, so many players who'll bet the turn in an attempt to buy the pot and then check it down behind on the river when called on the turn, and so comparably few who will, as you point out, fire again on the river with something you can beat.

"I see otherwise good players pay off in situations like these all the time. Maybe they think their reads aren't good enough to make that fold...but reads like that can significantly add to one's hourly rate"

-I think this describes me: "otherwise good" [i.e., not great] and thinking my "reads aren't good enough." Obviously, we've had similar discussions here many times before, the old fur coat vs. fruit plate colloquy. But I definitely need work on this aspect of my game.

[andyfox]

Haven't been playing much, just got back from 8 days in Asia. Next Saturday looks like my first opportunity.

[ggbman]

James, i think knowing who are you are reading your posts, i would fold to the turn raise without a doubt when you post this hand here like this. In the head of the moment, i might be tempted to call down, but i think folding is correct. 3 betting is absoltley horrible and is not even a consideration. Here's the thing. I don't think you woulod ever be dumb enough to raise JJ here because you have to call the 3 bet with your 6 outs, and the amount of times you get 3-bet exceed the number of times you opponent folds a better hand. Since i'm sure your capable of this line of thought, i fold.