A 1 bet river fold, 30/60 - Page 2

TStoneMBD · #11 03-15-2005, 02:14 AM

wow this is bad. whats with the slowplay on the flop? i can understand that you were planning to raise the turn, but by waiting to raise you could allow the player behind you to come in with a 6, or some sort of gutshot. after you smooth call and its raised behind you, why didnt you repop it? were you planning to checkraise the turn? thats terrible. he could easily be going for a free card. were you planning on smooth calling the raise and then leading the turn? another terrible play as youre just throwing away equity.

not to mention the river fold.

i dont get the whole thing.

James282 · #12 03-15-2005, 02:29 AM

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wow this is bad. whats with the slowplay on the flop? i can understand that you were planning to raise the turn, but by waiting to raise you could allow the player behind you to come in with a 6, or some sort of gutshot. after you smooth call and its raised behind you, why didnt you repop it? were you planning to checkraise the turn? thats terrible. he could easily be going for a free card. were you planning on smooth calling the raise and then leading the turn? another terrible play as youre just throwing away equity.

not to mention the river fold.

i dont get the whole thing.

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The flop slowplay is because I don't mind him taking one off for a gutshot. The recall on the flop served the purpose of disguising my hand, as I planned on making more from him on the turn, as this particular player could shut down to my obvious overcall-reraise.

The turn seems obvious, maybe the cap is debatable but I don't think so.

The river fold, before you laugh at it, put a vpip 20 player on a range of hands and their relative likelihoods and let's go from there.
-James

bobbyi · #13 03-15-2005, 02:42 AM

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Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, Button raises, BB calls, Hero calls.

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I don't have a problem with your initial flop call, but once it is raised and called back to you again, I would make it three bets. It may look like you are pumping with some sort of draw and disguise your hand (although you might argue that they know that with something like overs and a flush draw you would have raised initially, so it doesn't disguise your hand that well). It makes the turn much easier to play. In this case, you were fortunate enough to have BB lead again, but if he checks the turn, are you going to check-raise the button? It would suck to have the turn check around. Are you going to lead? In that case I would definitely three-bet now and get more money in since I'm leading the turn anyway. And three-betting opens the door to have the button cap it, which is nice. Overall, I'm fine with the first flop call, but I really don't like the second one.

Justin A · #14 03-15-2005, 02:42 AM

I like the fold, but I call with 99. 88 is tough.

James282 · #15 03-15-2005, 02:50 AM

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Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, Button raises, BB calls, Hero calls.

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I don't have a problem with your initial flop call, but once it is raised and called back to you again, I would make it three bets. It may look like you are pumping with some sort of draw and disguise your hand (although you might argue that they know that with something like overs and a flush draw you would have raised initially, so it doesn't disguise your hand that well). It makes the turn much easier to play. In this case, you were fortunate enough to have BB lead again, but if he checks the turn, are you going to check-raise the button? It would suck to have the turn check around. Are you going to lead? In that case I would definitely three-bet now and get more money in since I'm leading the turn anyway. And three-betting opens the door to have the button cap it, which is nice. Overall, I'm fine with the first flop call, but I really don't like the second one.

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Yeah, I am thinking now that you guys are right, and it's probably my usual line. Felt like mixing it up for some reason, especially because this bb was a clown and I think he'd lead a lot of turns.
-James

roy_miami · #16 03-15-2005, 03:37 AM

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The river fold, before you laugh at it, put a vpip 20 player on a range of hands and their relative likelihoods and let's go from there.

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If he would call 2 w/A9s he could also have A8s or A7s. He likely puts you on a big ace the way you played your hand. I would say the minimum he raises on the river is AK. If he's capable of calling 2 w/Axs he would likely play A7-9 like this post flop.

I say most often he turns over AK, 99 or 88. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see TJs, A9s, maybe A8s or AA.

I think because you never really showed the true strength of your hand (unless he doesnt think you'll cap a big Ace on the turn) you should call and expect to be shown AK or A9s often enough for a profit.

James282 · #17 03-15-2005, 04:13 AM

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The river fold, before you laugh at it, put a vpip 20 player on a range of hands and their relative likelihoods and let's go from there.

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If he would call 2 w/A9s he could also have A8s or A7s. He likely puts you on a big ace the way you played your hand. I would say the minimum he raises on the river is AK. If he's capable of calling 2 w/Axs he would likely play A7-9 like this post flop.

I say most often he turns over AK, 99 or 88. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see TJs, A9s, maybe A8s or AA.

I think because you never really showed the true strength of your hand (unless he doesnt think you'll cap a big Ace on the turn) you should call and expect to be shown AK or A9s often enough for a profit.

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Raise AK? Never showed the strength of my hand? You're living in candy land.
-James

TStoneMBD · #18 03-15-2005, 04:26 AM

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You're living in candy land.

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dude that game is so much fun. i used to play that as a kid. i would so play that for money.

roy_miami · #19 03-15-2005, 04:53 AM

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Raise AK? Never showed the strength of my hand? You're living in candy land.

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This would be my logic if I was villain with AK. When you just call the flop and then come alive when the ace comes on the turn I have every reason to believe you have AT, AJ, AQ or AK the way you played it, no? Easy 3-bet for me. Your cap would worry me slightly.

On the river you just call Idiot laggy BB's bet, looks like a big ace after all, I might as well raise for value as I'm not scared of a reraise. I would certainly raise that river with AK vs. 2 LAGs (at least I would collect 1 bet from you in a side pot), is it really that far fetched that he puts you on AK or worse and thinks you're laggy?

James282 · #20 03-15-2005, 05:16 AM

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Raise AK? Never showed the strength of my hand? You're living in candy land.

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This would be my logic if I was villain with AK. When you just call the flop and then come alive when the ace comes on the turn I have every reason to believe you have AT, AJ, AQ or AK the way you played it, no? Easy 3-bet for me. Your cap would worry me slightly.

On the river you just call Idiot laggy BB's bet, looks like a big ace after all, I might as well raise for value as I'm not scared of a reraise. I would certainly raise that river with AK vs. 2 LAGs (at least I would collect 1 bet from you in a side pot), is it really that far fetched that he puts you on AK or worse and thinks you're laggy?

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You think I'd cap AK there?? What am I putting the button on if I cap AK? AQc? AJc? Oh wait, the clubs got there on the river. You would raise AK for value????? Gimme a break dude. There is absolutely no value in a river raise for Ak there. No thinking(but not expert who had total control over me) player would ever raise AK on the river there. I won't buy it. A9s is possible, as I said, but there is 1 combination of that. There are zero combinations of A7s and 1 combination of A8s that I beat, and far more combinations of hands that beat me that are also far more likely given the action. You're going to have to do better than some far off scenario where someone would play AK like that. Upon further review I think the river fold is a little closer than I felt at the time(and player reads are, as we know, the intangible here), but in no way is my fold awful.

AKc, AQc, AJc, ATc, A9c, 3 combinations of AA, 3 combinations of 88, 3 combinations of 99, 4 combinations of JTs makes 18 hands that beat me. The hands that I beat that he might raise on the river are A9d, A8d, and A8h.

So that's 6:1. Now we see can examine their various likelihoods. I would say A8h is by far the least likely since he raised the flop. I would say the big club hands and the JTs hands are by far the most likely. Given the action, he will fear a set a certain percentage of the time and not raise the top two or A8 hand, whereas he will always raise the made straight or the nut flush.

We ought to agree that the action makes the group of hands that beats me are more likely than the hands that I beat. They need to be 3 and a half times as likely for this fold to be Ev neutral. I would say that the first range of hands is more than 5 times as likely, as a slightly too loose player is far less likely to have a hand like A8s or A9s than 88, 99, JTs, or a bigger suited ace. Can anyone come up with more hands to broaden this range?
-James