15/30 - To 3-bet or not to 3-bet? - Page 3

elindauer · #21 12-02-2005, 07:44 AM

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Online i feel that the cap turn for a free showdown is a play I see quite often.

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What games do you play?

I actually did this earlier tonight and thought specifically thought to myself hmmm, what an unusual play. You don't see that very often.

bet/call is quite a poor line since virtually all turn caps are for straight value, not for free showdowns.

-Eric

elindauer · #22 12-02-2005, 07:47 AM

I think you are WAY overvaluing the probability that a non-flush will give this much action. The idea that you are a huge favorite on the river is pretty far off if experience is any guide. It's a rare player who will cap the flop and the turn without a huge hand.

-eric

krishanleong · #23 12-02-2005, 08:35 AM

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I think you are WAY overvaluing the probability that a non-flush will give this much action. The idea that you are a huge favorite on the river is pretty far off if experience is any guide. It's a rare player who will cap the flop and the turn without a huge hand.

-eric

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I included too many ace permutations. If you just include set configurations (discounted 50%), Acx, and QcJc, there are 8 effective hands you are ahead. I still think AJ and AQ are the only likely flushes. Maybe throw in 1 randome hand for donkyness. By this revised calc we would be a 8/3 favorite on the river. Sounds close to correct to me.

I agree 6/1 was too favorable. Thanks for chiming in! I'm glad you like a check/call over a bet/call.

Krishan

golferbrent · #24 12-03-2005, 05:35 AM

Really??

I see this play more then you would think. Plus, I will use this play every now and then as well. In addition, the person capping may feel he is capping for value and may raise on the end with a still worse hand.

My point in my analysis was that a C/R is clearly not the correct play b/c if you go actually get 3 bet, you are definitely not in good shape!

elindauer · #25 12-03-2005, 07:32 PM

If I could bet 3 to win 8 that you lost this hand, I'd take it. 8:3 odds is still way too high I believe. You're not discounting the hands enough given the action. Very few players give this much action on a 3-flush board without the nut flush. 1.76 AF is very reasonable. I doubt he has anything less than the nut flush. I don't think he's capping a set anywhere near 1/2 the time he has one.

I think you're probably closer to 50/50 to have the best hand, maybe even a 60/40 dog. I'm certainly not folding, but I like check-call.

If you think you are an 8:3 favorite, check-raise the river.

good luck.
eric

golferbrent · #26 12-04-2005, 04:56 PM

I play anywhere from 15/30 to 30/60 and some 1/2. In addition, to the cap for free showdown, I also see people make this play with inferior hands as well... the most likely being a set or with a pair and the naked Ac. All in all, I am still going to lead the river and call a raise.

Abbaddabba · #27 12-04-2005, 05:30 PM

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What happens when you check raise? KK,88 will bet all the time. AA will bet maybe half the time. So a cr nets you on average 1.5 BB when ahead. You lose 3 BB when behind. But the ratio of hands is favorable enough that you still come out ahead.

The brilliant part is when you can fold to a 3-bet. Then, when you are ahead you win 2 and when you are behind you lose 2. Compare this to bet/calling which nets you 1 when ahead and loses 2 when behind.

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i dont think that there will ever be a read strong enough to fold for one bet here, absent of him showing his cards face up.

The reason you call the 3bet (which you absolutely must) is because there is a slim chance that he's 3betting with a worse hand, not because you "just gotta".

If he occasionally does this, then you must also account for that in the EV of checkraising, weighted by the probability that it would occur. There are at least some instances where you win 3 bets on the river when checkraising, even if most of the times that you get 3bet, it'll be for a loss of 3 bets.

You can't automatically write off a 3bet as a loss of 3 bets. If it was, you wouldnt be calling... but you are. Why? Because those 3bets arent an automatic write off.

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I included too many ace permutations. If you just include set configurations (discounted 50%), Acx, and QcJc, there are 8 effective hands you are ahead. I still think AJ and AQ are the only likely flushes. Maybe throw in 1 randome hand for donkyness. By this revised calc we would be a 8/3 favorite on the river. Sounds close to correct to me.

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I dont think that J9s, 910s, 10Js, JQs or even 10Qs are incredibly unlikely PF raises from the button with one limper and a poster. We hold the 10 of clubs, so that eliminates 3 of them, but J9 and JQ are not absurd.

I realize that his PFR%age is only 6 after a few hundred hands and that, by the looks of things he's a loose donkish player... but i dont know if i'd discredit any of those from his range of hands, even still.