Pocket 6's with M=4

[Toopskees]

Home game. Started with 22 players, currently down to 2 tables of 6 each. Top 4 places pay. I have T4900. Villain in this case is table chipleader with around T9000. Other stacks are slightly higher or lower than mine. Blinds are 400/800, but are going up to 600/1200 in next 2 or 3 hands. Villain is a solid thinking player who has used his big stack to his advantage and has played fairly aggressively once he got the chip lead.
Villain open-raises UTG to 2000. I am next to act with pocket 6's. Fold, call or push?

[A_PLUS]

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Home game. Started with 22 players, currently down to 2 tables of 6 each. Top 4 places pay. I have T4900. Villain in this case is table chipleader with around T9000. Other stacks are slightly higher or lower than mine. Blinds are 400/800, but are going up to 600/1200 in next 2 or 3 hands. Villain is a solid thinking player who has used his big stack to his advantage and has played fairly aggressively once he got the chip lead.
Villain open-raises UTG to 2000. I am next to act with pocket 6's. Fold, call or push?

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Push

[EverettKings]

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Home game. Started with 22 players, currently down to 2 tables of 6 each. Top 4 places pay. I have T4900. Villain in this case is table chipleader with around T9000. Other stacks are slightly higher or lower than mine. Blinds are 400/800, but are going up to 600/1200 in next 2 or 3 hands. Villain is a solid thinking player who has used his big stack to his advantage and has played fairly aggressively once he got the chip lead.
Villain open-raises UTG to 2000. I am next to act with pocket 6's. Fold, call or push?

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Push

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FOLD

Do you really think that the Villain is folding any kind of a hand here getting 2:1? He'll make a relucant call with his QTo and a lot of other hands that we don't want to see, including overpairs and other good hands. There's also still the issue of 4 players left to be heard from. Pushing here is straight gambling.

Kings

[jedi]

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Home game. Started with 22 players, currently down to 2 tables of 6 each. Top 4 places pay. I have T4900. Villain in this case is table chipleader with around T9000. Other stacks are slightly higher or lower than mine. Blinds are 400/800, but are going up to 600/1200 in next 2 or 3 hands. Villain is a solid thinking player who has used his big stack to his advantage and has played fairly aggressively once he got the chip lead.
Villain open-raises UTG to 2000. I am next to act with pocket 6's. Fold, call or push?

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Push

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FOLD

Do you really think that the Villain is folding any kind of a hand here getting 2:1? He'll make a relucant call with his QTo and a lot of other hands that we don't want to see, including overpairs and other good hands. There's also still the issue of 4 players left to be heard from. Pushing here is straight gambling.

Kings

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The question really is taking the chance now, or taking a worse chance later? Remember, blinds are going up in the next 2 or 3 hands. Hero's stack will be completely unmanagable after that point. Everyone will call because his stack will be too short. While I'd rather be 1st in here, I think you have to take your stand now.

[A_PLUS]

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Home game. Started with 22 players, currently down to 2 tables of 6 each. Top 4 places pay. I have T4900. Villain in this case is table chipleader with around T9000. Other stacks are slightly higher or lower than mine. Blinds are 400/800, but are going up to 600/1200 in next 2 or 3 hands. Villain is a solid thinking player who has used his big stack to his advantage and has played fairly aggressively once he got the chip lead.
Villain open-raises UTG to 2000. I am next to act with pocket 6's. Fold, call or push?

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Push

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FOLD

Do you really think that the Villain is folding any kind of a hand here getting 2:1? He'll make a relucant call with his QTo and a lot of other hands that we don't want to see, including overpairs and other good hands. There's also still the issue of 4 players left to be heard from. Pushing here is straight gambling.

Kings

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I would like him to fold, but I will make this play assuming he wont. FWIW, I want to see QTo. >50/50 chance to have over 10K, and runaway chip lead at a short table. Explain to me why I dont LOVE that situation?

Gambling, yes.
+CEV, yes


You have 4800 chips.

In 3 hands you will have 3400. So, forget the pipe dreams of F.E. you wont be making anymore bets that someone will be getting less than 2-1 to call you unless you double up.

If you want, give me a range, I will run a $EV calc. I really cant see anything other than pushing here. Is it a gamble, absolutely, but Im not going to cash in this tournament without gambling.

[Pat Southern]

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FOLD

Do you really think that the Villain is folding any kind of a hand here getting 2:1? He'll make a relucant call with his QTo and a lot of other hands that we don't want to see, including overpairs and other good hands. There's also still the issue of 4 players left to be heard from. Pushing here is straight gambling.

Kings

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I dont think this a clear cut fold, nor is it a clear cut push. You need to be about 45% against his range of hands here for break even, if he really is playing aggressive with his big stack you're going to be better than 45%, however the thing I'd be worried about is somebody else waking up with a bigger hand. I'd look at the players on my left and if they look disinterested in the hand, then I push, if they've been willing to gamble, and therefore will be willing to push with a hand like 88 after a reraise, then I fold. Without a read, I'd probably fold since the blinds will be going up after I pass through them, but I think the difference between pushing and folding is pretty marginal.

[Mark1808]

I agree that given 2 -1 on your push he is most likely to reluctantly call with overcards. However, with the blinds going up and a 6 handed table you only have about 15 more hands before you are blinded out. I say push, you are likely to be a slight favorite and if it holds up you will be the chip leader! You are unlikely to get a better heads up hand than 66 in the next 15 hands, plus your stack will be severly blinded away if you ever do.

[A_PLUS]

Something everyone has to consider.

What happens if we fold?
80-%90% of the time we will be dealt a hand that we fold for the next 3 hands.

We cost ourselves 1.5xBB (assuming blinds dont go up before we get there).

We are going to have to double up within the next 9 hands. By folding, we cost ourselves 3xBB if we do eventually double up.

IMO, taking a shot (even if it is CEV neutral or slightly negative) is still our most profitable line. You have to take a stand when doubling your chips still means something.


Dont misinterpret my advice and think that I love this spot, and I think there is anything more than a 50/50 chance that we survive. Am I happy about pushing here? absolutely not. Do I think that it will earn me the most money in the long run? yes.

[Toopskees]

Given the way the rest of the table had been playing, I felt that a push would not get called unless they held a real monster. Also, I had not shown any hands all night with none of my wins going to a showdown; I had shown selective aggression and had made a few all-in moves already which were not called. With the way Villain had been playing, I put him on 2 big cards or a suited connector. Thus, I thought that I was probably a small favorite going in. Despite the odds I was giving him to call, I thought that my best shot at winning was to double up right then and there. My M was about to drop to around 3 very shortly, so I was going to have to make a stand really soon anyway. So I pushed with my pair. He turned up KJ and caught a J.

[Rekwob]

easy push, looking at the stacks/blinds ratio its already a crapshoot, and this far from the money you have to get your chips in, hope your 50-50 and lucky enough to win the race.

i think your only other option if you fold is pushing any two next hand, because if you let yourself take the blinds and then the blinds go up, you'll need to double up twice to be anywhere near comfortable, and its bad enough letting yourself get into the situation that you're in, never mind letting it get worse