Too many fish ? not random? or poor luck?

[polyphemus]

Say what you will, and perhaps the truth is I'm a bad player. As of today, I'm done with online poker. I recently cashed out $9k only to go on a losing streak of $3k IMMEDIATElY without even a breath. Same play too. Some range of fuckery:

KK vs. 74o flop with 7 river comes 4
AA vs. 23s for river flush
flopped sets vs. rivered higher sets
sets vs. runner runner flush and straights

and my personal favorite:

QQ vs QQ to lose to a flush

Each time, good play by me, no reason to slow down, no reason to not raise with the best of it.

Now, again, I have won a fair amount and I'm sure I've sucked out on people a fair amount too. In B&M play I am a winning player. Internet, I'm getting out while I'm still a little ahead.

I can't say the sites are rigged (although this "cash out curse" has been accurate for me every time). But I will say there are so many junk players, so many weak ace players, etc.

Why should I look down and see KK or AA and wonder what new and exciting ways party poker has to screw me?

What it comes down to is that I can't be a great poker player online playing good poker against bad poker players. I haven't figured it out yet and I'm not willing to try.

Thanks for the rant. Hope to see you live and in the flesh. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[pfkaok]

Well, for me too, i feel like i lose with AA or KK a lot, and you know what... I DO!!! maybe it has something to do with the fact that you expect to win with premium hands, so you tend to remember the times that you lose with them. But I have this cool thing called Pokertracker, and despite the fact that I get drawn out on so much with crap when I have AA, for some strange reason I still make more with it than with any other hand. I might be going out on a limb here, but if you took into account all the times you won huge pots with AA when you were running good, I'd bet that AA is your best hand too (if you've played enough hands, and if you're playing your AA correct)

KK vs 74o : he hits 5 outer (not increadibly rare)
AA vs. 23s : Flushes aren't THAT rare
set over set : rare, but I'm sure you've been on the top end just as often, (moreso if you don't always play small pairs for raises)
sets vs. runner, runners : rare as well, but remember when you hvae a lot of bad players in there there's going to be several runner-runner chances on every hand, so for one person to hit it isn't too rare.

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What it comes down to is that I can't be a great poker player online playing good poker against bad poker players.

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well, if you can't beat bad players, then I find it hard to believe that you could beat good players, but whatever you say... you grind it out in the tough games vs good players, and I guess I'll have to hope to "get lucky" against all the horrible players online. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[decigam]

That means that your win rate is now 10.2%, this is still VERY high (especially for .5/1) and you are still being pretty lucky.

You just have to understand that a solid player should not win his "share" of pots (10%) and you will be ok.

Hope this helps.

[lefty rosen]

Many poor players still don't know how to play AA or KK, QQ, JJ or worse AK. They think they are impervious to bad beats with these hands and will lose too many bets with them....

[polyphemus]

[ QUOTE ]
well, if you can't beat bad players, then I find it hard to believe that you could beat good players, but whatever you say... you grind it out in the tough games vs good players, and I guess I'll have to hope to "get lucky" against all the horrible players online. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You know, I think part of it is the global nature of online poker. There are just so many players willing to play (read: gamble with) a 15/30 party game. When I play a 20/40 or 40/80 B&M game, it seems that the players aren't "gambling" per se...certainly they play the odds i.e. suited cards on family pots or whatever. I just don't see a lot of "well he's raising with hands like AK or JJ so if I call 3 bets with junk and hit the board, I may get lucky and win a big pot" in live games the way I do online. I am by no means think that is a bad way to play (it seems to work for a fair amount of junk players I tagged on my buddy list who seem to have winning sessions when I see them), just that it doesn't work for me as I never seem to "get lucky" or whatever you want to say. When I'm winning, I'm playing well with good hands against worse hands.

I think a lot of it has to do with 8 hours of live play sees substantially fewer hands than 8 hours of online play and the variance associated with that can be a killer.

[pfkaok]

Well, i dunno... just about every live 3-6 game I've been in has been way looser and full of bad players than most Party 3-6 games. Bad players = more mistakes... more mitakes from opponesnts = more money for you. Online simply lets you approach the longrun much quicker b/c of the increased hands.

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I think a lot of it has to do with 8 hours of live play sees substantially fewer hands than 8 hours of online play and the variance associated with that can be a killer.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right about this though, plus the average 3-6 game online is probably much more aggressive than the same game live, and the players are on average a little better. This would make for a higher variance/100 hands online. Plus as you said you play way more hands online, so for one full day you can have much bigger swings.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi

i had over 190 000 hands 11% wins. Last 24 000 hands i have 3,87% !!!!!!!!!!! Have the feeling any AA is killed from a 27 on river any trips from a straight any straight from a flush and SURE mostly on river. In the moment i have the feeling its rigged or only poor luck ??? Sometimes i think on this 0,5/1$ tables are too many fishes mostly not possible to read a hand.

Wolfgang

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If you're going to lie about your stats, at least be consistant

[banditdad]

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Have you made any cashouts recently?

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This is another good point, as I've heard enough empirical evidence from winning players to verify with 99.99% certainty that Partypoker (and others) hate it when you cashout, so they will rig the site against you right after you get money out.

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG, I hope this isn't true. I just made a cashout today. Does anyone have a slightly used PPPM I can buy?

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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Hi

i had over 190 000 hands 11% wins. Last 24 000 hands i have 3,87% !!!!!!!!!!! Have the feeling any AA is killed from a 27 on river any trips from a straight any straight from a flush and SURE mostly on river. In the moment i have the feeling its rigged or only poor luck ??? Sometimes i think on this 0,5/1$ tables are too many fishes mostly not possible to read a hand.

Wolfgang


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If you're going to lie about your stats, at least be consistant


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HAHAHA, great find. I didn't even think to take the time to check his old posts. Nice work though

[Blarg]

pfaok is right. No matter how much you lose with AA and KK, they're still pretty much guaranteed to be your biggest winners over time.

I've had some stretches over 5k where I've been in the negative with AA or with KK, and more so by far with QQ,which has been spectacularly bad for me at times. But no matter how bad it gets, the quality of those cards keeps on making them eventually come out on top. I never would have believed that without pokertracker, I know. It sure doesn't feel like, it, but it's true.

If you're so upset by playing online, though, the best thing might be to not play online for a while. No point trying to fight yourself while you play. Poker demands confidence.