This hand still bugs me. $500 max NL

[SpeakEasy]

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SpeakEasy,

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1. 65% chance he had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or maybe A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

2. 25% chance he had the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], kicker non-heart.

3. 10% chance he had an overpair with no heart, from AA down to possibly 99.

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On this flop:
Chance you win with 33 v AhKh: 33%
Chance you win with 33 v AhKc: 63%
Chance you win with 33 v TcTs: 84%

Given your estimates, your pot equity is .33 x .65 + .63 x .25 + .84 x .10 = .2145 + .1575 + .084 = .456.

If these are your estimates, then this is a very easy call.

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Help me out with the math here, Huskie. Are your calculations that my pot equity is 45%? And this is a call, when I'm behind? Are you comparing the price of the call to the size of the pot? I just want to understand what you're saying.

Also, how do you get to 33% chance of winning if he has the made Ace-high flush. I count 7 outs, or runner-runner pair on the turn-river. This is a critical assumption in your math.

[Gainsay]

Huskie's numbers are correct. You can get them from running any hand simulator, or you can just approximate them by drawing to 7 outs and then 10 outs. Remember to take into account that the 2 big hearts aren't in the deck.

I'm amazed so many people told you to fold, this is an easy call. I think your breakdown of what hands your opponent might have is too pessimistic, and even given that breakdown calling is +EV.

[SpeakEasy]

See, this is why posting these hands is a good idea. If I understand your math correctly, say we run exact scenario 100 times:

45% of the time I win, for a total of +$40,500.
55% of the time I lose, for a total of -$36,300.
Net result +$4,200 over 100 hands sample. Call.

Maybe at the time I was 90% certain he had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]...

[psuasskicker]

It's been said (I think twice) already but I think you've gotta smooth call here. His bet is a pathetic attempt at something, but that flop brings lots of potential problems, and the flush is only one (albeit the biggest) of them. You also have to worry about a straight, and though a higher set isn't likely, it's at least possible.

The PF raise stinks of weakness, though I don't know his habits. He had five limpers and raised to 3x the BB? The first limper gets four to one on his call, and it only gets better from there. What's limped that will fold? It smells to me like a "pot builder", which certainly means it could be anything.

The thing for me is, even if he's on something legit, there are a ton of cards out there that hurt you if you're not currently best. Consider he has a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] at the time.
- Two Aces give him a higher set.
- Four fives give him a straight (one an unbeatable SF).
- Eight other hearts give him the flush.
By the turn, 14 cards could easily improve him even if you are currently best. Those numbers get much better for a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Xr, but they're still a bit daunting. And I think you have to assume that if you're not currently beaten that you're highly likely to be against A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

At the same time, there are seven cards that could fall on the turn that help you so much that it becomes insignificant whatever he has. You then would have ten more outs on the river to do the same thing to him.

Top it all off by the fact that it's unlikely that you can drag a whole lot more money out of him by your raise without being willing to risk all of it in the fashion you did.
1) He has no heart and is losing to you, he likely gives up the hand immediately. Why continue? He's only into it for $40...not much to worry about for a hand with little chance of winning.
2) He is on the draw, then he'll either be hesitant to commit too much more to the pot (without hitting), or will semi-bluff at you in a possibly huge fashion.
3) He's got you beat, in which case any aggression you show is likely to be met with a massive move as the pot will have become healthy with you representing a big hand on a dangerous flop. Are you doing that on a bluff? Unlikely, so he can (rightly) assume that it will be difficult for you to get off your hand.

This is a pot you benefit from keeping small. You're unlikely to win much more money if you're currently best. A decent raise on the flop like you made makes the pot big, and he's just as likely to semi-bluff a reasonable but not threatening amount into the turn as well without your raise. But the small nature of a smooth call here keeps him from blowing you off the pot completely on the turn without your easily being able to release the hand (if you miss). Plus, you still protect your hand cause it's tough for him to try to blow you off the pot, and you should be willing to commit a small / sensible amount of money to seeing showdown if he lets you.

- Chris