15-30 Bellagio -- drawing maximum blood

[SpeakEasy]

This hand came up at a 15-30 hold 'em game at the Bellagio this weekend. I think I misplayed it, and I wanted to get some thoughts on how others would have played it.

7 players at the table. UTG folds. I am UTG+1, and I have J-J. I raise. The next Player re-raises. All of the other players fold, including the SB and BB. I call Player's re-raise, and I'm now heads-up against Player, with $115 in the pot.

Player joined the table about 30 minutes earlier, and my early read is that he is fairly tight-aggressive. He's won two nice pots, and has folded other losing hands before the river. He's generally much more solid than the other local "regulars" in the game, who were largely loose calling stations (and who kept randomly getting up from the table and wandering off, which is why we were short-handed...). Overall, the game has been loose, with lots of weak calls and chases.

Flop comes K-J-K, three suits. Fabulous. How do you proceed?

1. On the flop, do you:
A. Bet, and just call any raise
B. Bet, and re-raise if Player raises
C. Check and call if Player bets, to slow-play
D. Check-raise

2. What's your plan for the turn and river?

[Navers]

I'm no pro, but I'd check-call the flop and check-raise the turn.

[Diplomatdcm]

either bet out, if you think he will raise, call the raise and C-R the tunr, or check call the fold and check raise the turn.
Dave

[Grvnhigh]

I like this line a lot. Another possible way is to check-call the flop and bet-3bet the turn, especially if you think that this player
1. has a king, or
2. is capable of raising the turn for a free showdown with AA, QQ, TT, or 99.

[Zele]

I don't think it matters that much, except I really don't like check-calling the flop and c/r'ing the turn. If he doesn't have a K, your action is going to stop right there.

I'd probably c/r the flop and call a 3-bet, then c/r the turn, but betting out the turn sounds good too.

[steveyz]

Assuming your opponent is a reasonable 3-bettor, he has AK, AA, KK, QQ, TT, and possibly 99. Because there are 2 Ks on the flop, the chance of him having AK is reduced (8 combinations), and having KK is very slim. It is about twice as likely that he has AA/QQ/TT/99 than a hand that contains a K.

I'm not too sure about the flop, but I'm betting out on the turn no matter what. If your opponent is solid and you check the turn, he will probably check behind with AA and maybe QQ and probably bet and fold to a check-raise if he has TT.

I'd lean towards check-raising the flop as it will be hard for your opponent to put you on a K and will likely call you down all the way if he doesn't have a K himself.

[SpeakEasy]

Interesting. I did exactly what Zele and Stevey suggested, so maybe my play wasn't so bad?...

I went for the check-raise on the flop. He folded in a heartbeat, and I immediately knew I made a bad play. I should have check-called, then possibly a check-raise on the turn.

If I were in his position with one of the possible 3-bet hands discussed above (AA-TT, AK, AQ), and I was check raised, I would probably get out of there in a hurry, also.

I should have slow played -- probably would have earned at least one more big bet. Learn from your mistakes....

[steveyz]

If your opponent is going to let go of 3-betting hands this easily on the flop, you can have a field day with this guy. My guess is that he had AQ or TT or smaller pocket pair.

It all depends on your table image too, which is more important in these live games in comparision to online games. If you have a rock tight image, maybe a slowplay is in order. But against a lot of players, I'd check-raise this flop with just a J so they'd be incorrect always folding to my check-raise.

I'm not sure you should be folding AA or QQ for a check-raise if you were the 3-bettor. I'd only do this against the most passive of opponents.

[ike]

I disagree. I think the flop checkraise is very good because most solid players will read a turn checkraise as very strong but a flop checkraise as somewhat weak. This is because the flop checkraise looks like an attempt to defend a weak hand that is likely to currently be ahead. I believe your opponent folded to your checkraise only because he had a hand that was in trouble against AJ. AA, AK, and likely QQ will be 3betting you here and then allowing you to checkraise the turn.
You want to play your hand deceptively but slowplaying on this board is not actually deceptive. Put yourself in his shoes and try to decide what someone who checkcalls the flop has. Since your opponent expects you to slowplay a hand as powerful as yours the deceptive play is to immediatly start jamming it.

[mike l.]

"and my early read is"

what's even more important here than what you think of him is what you think he thinks of you. from that you will know how to proceed and not need to ask others.