Easy River Value Bet?

[toss]

Five Handed,

Villain is 40.5/5.4/.7 and 63.64 wtsd/42.86 w$@sd after 75 hands. He's been showing down with a lot of crap.

Villain limps from MP, folded to me on the BB and I check with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Bet/call.

Turn is 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Bet/call.

River is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I value bet intending to fold to a raise.

I think check/folding may be better but perhaps to weak. This is 5 handed and 40% VP$IP is not super loose, however his postflop play is looser.

I think check/fold may be better than bet/fold because this opponent may not bet Ax and Kx that beat you, so it gets checked through.

Bet/fold is more against an opp that is likely to bet hands that beat you and check behind with hands that don't beat you.

This opponent may check through with a lot of hands that beat you.

True

what is a .7 raising this flop with? I'm thinking a better K. I'm probably c/c'ing the turn, and maybe c/c'ing the river expecting to chop.

[toss]

No one raised the flop. I bet and he called.

[milesdyson]

it's really close i think, against someone with his vpip.

if it were like 50 i think it's good. the problems:

1. he will probably hang around on the flop and turn with Ax, as well as of course Qx.
2. we can not beat any K and he will definitely not fold one.

ah, i just saw your little note on him. 63% wtsd and showing down a bunch of crap... yes i like this bet. this guy will call with Tx, Jx, 97/87, and maybe under pairs.

[ QUOTE ]
it's really close i think, against someone with his vpip.

if it were like 50 i think it's good. the problems:

1. he will probably hang around on the flop and turn with Ax, as well as of course Qx.
2. we can not beat any K and he will definitely not fold one.

ah, i just saw your little note on him. 63% wtsd and showing down a bunch of crap... yes i like this bet. this guy will call with Tx, Jx, 97/87, and maybe under pairs.

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His VP$IP is 40 overall, from MP I would guess it is less than this by quite a bit. does he have Tx, Jx or 97/87 that often.

He will definitely raise a Q, will call K or an A. how many Jx or Tx or 7x does he have in proportion to Ks As and Qs that limp from MP?

True

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No one raised the flop. I bet and he called.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh, misunderstood. You bet he called. Thought your line was bet/call his raise.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
He will definitely raise a Q, will call K or an A. how many Jx or Tx or 7x does he have in proportion to Ks As and Qs that limp from MP?

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it doesnt matter that he will raise a Q, because we're not going to call a raise.

you could give him a range. basically if he can have more worse hands than better hands we should bet (hands that he will call or raise). the thing that for me pushed it over the edge was that i expect this guy is bad enough to call with hands like 55 and that 97/87.

[toss]

I bet, he calls and I get wa warm feeling in my chest when he shows J8o. MHIG.

[Pog0]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy River Value Bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.