FW 5/10, KK hand

[2planka]

MP2 is new to the table, which made my decision on the river a little tricky.

Button is tight pf, loose/passive afterwards.

BB plays anything suited or unsuited connectors, and always defends her blind with any 2.

Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
1 limper, MP2 raises, folded to me and I 3 bet, button calls 3 cold, BB calls, limper folds, MP2 calls. (15 SBs)

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB checks, MP2 checks, I bet, button calls, BB calls, MP2 calls (19 SB)

Turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB checks, MP2 checks, I bet, button calls, BB folds, MP2 calls (12.5 BB)

River: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
MP2 bets....

[thesharpie]

I very much doubt MP2 has the flush, the A and K of [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] are accounted for so unless he raises Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] PF you've got him beat. Button almost never has it either since he's tight and coldcalled 3 PF. I raise it up.

I'd call and fold if the button raises. MP2 is playing an ace strangely at least 1 time in 13 here. I'm not too worried about the button.

[Redd]

Our set of kings beats an ace. That said, I'd still go for overcalls with the guy behind me. If we're ahead, we're not getting more than 1 bet out of MP2 anyways and the guy behind us will likely overcall with a worse hand in this big pot.

I think your hand is good most of the time, but the only hands MP2 has that are giving you action if you raise probably have you beat. MP2 is more likely to have the flush than the button, whose only reasonable hand that is better than yours is a set of aces - which you probably would have heard from before this. He could have a smaller set or two pair which he may be willing to call one bet with. MP2 could just be betting the scare card, so you can't really fold unless you know he only bets made hands, even then two pair or a smaller set is still a possibility. Call, hoping for the overcall. If the button raises, fold if MP2 re-raises, and call if MP2 folds/calls. Re-raising the button may not be terrible either if MP2 folds.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

It is hard to believe you are beat here. However, given the action, I would probably call here and reluctantly call if the button raises (assuming MP2 doesn't three bet). There would be too much in the pot for me to fold to one more bet. There is a good chance of both players having big aces or aces-up.

[2planka]

I was almost certain I had MP2 beat, and I had a good idea of his exact holding given the action. It was 50-50 whether I had the button beat, so my decision came down to calling or raising.

Unfortunately, I was looking at MP2 when the river card hit the board, so I didn't pick up anything on the button.

Edit: in retrospect, I can't think of what the button could have that beats me here, but it wasn't at all clear at the time. I'll post results and my thoughts in a little bit.

[2planka]

I decided to call. The button called. My hand was good.

I think raising was the better play here, given my read of the button. He didn't show, but he did scoff at me saying, "nice turn card" so he probably had a big ace.

MP2 had A7o for aces up on the river.

So, did I miss a bet here? I think the "fog of war" tricked me into calling. I just got lucky that the button paid it off.

[KDawgCometh]

[ QUOTE ]
I was almost certain I had MP2 beat, and I had a good idea of his exact holding given the action. It was 50-50 whether I had the button beat, so my decision came down to calling or raising.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think that this reason is the reason for just calling and inducing the button to overcall. I could be wrong, but if we raise, the button folds, and mp2 calls we get the same amount of money as if we call and get the button to *hopefully* call. Also, by not raising, we don't open ourselves to a three bet for a hand that we aren't laying down

[Derek in NYC]

It is better to call rather than raise.

If the button behind you has a small flush, you'll never get him to fold, but he will fold a range of losing hands like AQ that he might have overcalled with. So there is value to just calling.

As against the donk bettor, a raise won't get re-raised since you hold the nut K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], but you won't fold out a small flush, either. So you make money by raising only if the donk has aces up, or 77, or is playing a hand like AQ in a standard c-c c-c b format, but you lose money if he has the flush.

If you assume that the odds of the donk being ahead/behind are even--or at least they are unknowable and thus assumed to be even--then the presence of trying to get the overcaller into the river makes calling the right move.