Small edge w/ AKo?

[MLG]

so put a hand range together for each of them given your read. It will be interesting to use that range to do some side pot math.

[PrayingMantis]

OK i'll try to be more specific about ranges here, but it'll take me some time to get back with it as I'm a bit busy right now... maybe in 2-3 hours. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Che]

Original post:

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Folded to CO... very loose and pretty bad player .... on the SB sits a very aggressive manic player

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This post:

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They are not crazy players.

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These are contradictory statements as I read them. I don't see much difference between loose/bad, aggressive/manic, and crazy.

But, you do and that's the root of our disagreement, I suppose. We obviously won't disagree about the CEV after hand ranges are chosen (since that's just math), but we are using different ranges given the different interpretations of your reads.

I'm interested in reading your hand ranges post (in 2-3 hours when you get around to it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]).

Later,
Che

[PrayingMantis]

Well, maybe it's a matter of vague description of my read of them, although I'm not sure it's the case. When I said later on they are not crazy, I meant they are not $5 rebuy MTT crazy. And in my OP I actually gave a pretty clear range, especially with regard to SB, in order for him to push here: most aces (maybe down to A5), any pair, some Kx. I think that this is very much an aggressive manic poker, without necessarily being completely crazy (for this stage of the game, when the blinds are still low), but maybe it's only semantics. It's *possible* that SB pushes with a wider range (QJ, TJ and some other random stuff, but not as often as with other hands).

I think that in order for CO to mini-raise then push, he should have a somewhat better range, aces from A9-AT to AK, pairs from say 66 and up, KQ and maybe KJ.

Obviously I should be somewhat more worried about CO's range, because I'm playing against him in both pots. I prefer him to have a worse ace than a pair, and for SB to have the pair (if at least one of them has a pair).

Now I guess we have to do some main-pot/side-pot ranges math. Anyone has the time and energy? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Schaefer]

I agree with Che. You tried to trap two over aggressive players and it worked. I also agree with you that it is important to do the math to show that our instincts are right.

OK, this is the first time I've ever used Poker Stove but I promised myself that I would:
(1) Post more often, and
(2) Use real math more often,
so here is my virgin attempt. Don't make fun of me too much if I'm wrong or I may cry.

Here's the Poker Stove stuff based on your ranges:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 39.8688 % [ 00.36 00.03 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 33.2912 % [ 00.31 00.03 ] { AA-66, AKs-A9s, KQs-KJs, AKo-A9o, KQo-KJo }
Hand 3: 26.8400 % [ 00.25 00.02 ] { AA-22, AKs-A5s, KQs-K8s, AKo-A5o, KQo-K8o }


equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 59.5462 % [ 00.55 00.04 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 40.4538 % [ 00.36 00.04 ] { AA-66, AKs-A9s, KQs-KJs, AKo-A9o, KQo-KJo }

Main pot is 2190 and your Equity is 38.87% CEV = ~851
Side pot is 1340 and your Equity is 59.55% CEV = ~798

Total = 851 + 798 = 1649 so your EV is +249. Actually, since your stack is only 1340 if you fold your EV is +309, no?

Look good? CALL!

Schaefer

[adanthar]

I like this play the whole way and often use it, but I do think you have to prepare yourself to call here if CO is loose aggressive rather than loose passive.

If CO is one of those people that minraises QJo but will not push in this spot with less than his definition of a 'real hand', you can safely fold. If he minraises because he *does* think QJ is a real hand, you've gotta call him.

edit: Keep in mind that the last time I made this play, the guy raised UTG for the first time all tourney and when I did eventually fold he turned out to have aces. This isn't a play you use against calling stations.

[locutus2002]

I think your range is too loose. How many players will miniraise with a9o and then push against an all in with one player behind leaving 1/2 the bet in the center pot.
i dont see a9,at,kq,kj,88,77,66 as a candidate for CO. And I don't really see aj,TT,jj miniraising in late position either.
If you tighten down COs range then its hard for hero to be better than 33% in the center pot, which still gives him EV of ~90.

My range for SB was any ace, any broadway, any pair. (loose).
I think its all about aqo. If you put aqo into COs range then its a about an even bet, and has a lot of variance against supposedly weaker players.

[MLG]

hey schaefer, you should def post more, your insites would add to the forum. math looks pretty right to me also.

[PrayingMantis]

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Don't make fun of me too much if I'm wrong or I may cry.

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Yes we know you're a sensitive guy. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

The math of using the ranges I mentioned does show it's a call. I think it all goes down to how many Ax CO is (mini-raising and then) pushing here, and how many pairs. The more aces compared to pairs, the higher my equity, the more pairs and less aces, the lower it is. I wonder where's the threshold. I think I'll try to play with some numbers.

One minor thing that I think is missing in your calculation (and that is actually quite complicated to handle), is my equity in the side-pot considering SB might hold one of my outs (A or K). It will sure have some small negative effect on my EV against CO, in cases SB wins the main pot and CO has a non-dominated hand (a pair that is). It shouldn't change the conclusion, though.

[Sluss]

Alright, I've been thinking about this hand now since yesterday and I'm not sure if I like the line. For this very situation. Would this be a better spot to re-raise and just pick up chips? In other words is it better to get involved in big pots post flop and stay away from too many crazy pre-flop situations early? I'm still working on this whole accumulating chips early thing.

FWIW, I play this the same way insta-call the double push get shown 10-10 by the cutoff and Q-10 by the SB then when the flop comes J-10-2 I'm screaming Queen like Nick Frangos for two cards.