Small edge w/ AKo?

[PrayingMantis]

$109 MTT, early, blinds are 15/30. I have 1400.

Folded to CO, 2800, very loose and pretty bad player who mini-raises. I have AKo on the button. Behind me on the SB sits a very aggressive manic player, w/ 730, who will easily raise over the top here with any pair and most aces, and other random stuff too (some Kx for instance). I think that if I raise CO I might lose SB's action. So I flat call the miniraise. SB pushes. Folded to CO who rereraises all-in (2800). Very good chances I'm against a combination of some pair and a weaker ace, although there's a somewhat better chance that SB holds the weak ace and CO the pair (CO obviously doesn't have trash here).

Your thoughts?

[schwza]

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CO obviously doesn't have trash here

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maybe not total trash, but if he's paying attention then he wants to isolate the maniac. i think the odds are good enough that you're going to get it in against AJ and K8 that you should push. you're also getting some overlay if they both have a pocket pair < KK (AK v 99 v JJ = 36.5%, plus you have pot odds).

[PrayingMantis]

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i think the odds are good enough that you're going to get it in against AJ and K8 that you should push. you're also getting some overlay if they both have a pocket pair

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True, but I think that a significant % the time I'm against weaker ace/king held by SB, and a pair to CO. And I'm actually in a -CEV spot if that's the case (sligtly +CEV on the main pot, but pretty much -EV on the side pot). The chances are slightly against both having A or K I believe, since I have AK. And since I think CO's hand is better than SB, more chances he has a pair than a weak ace.

Also, the initial mini-raise by CO does show he has a hand, I think. AJ is sure an option, but IMO also 99-QQ for instance (and AK-AA-KK a non-significant % of the time).

The more I think about it the closer it looks. Although at the table I pushed.

[MLG]

i don't think you can just call the first time preflop if you aren't planning on callling in this spot the second time if this eventuality arises.

[steamroller]

If you call and SB folds, you'll be getting just over even money to call. But, if SB is as bad as you say and can call all-in against 2 players for his relatively small stack, he's liable to do it. In that case, you'll be getting close to 2-1 against Ax and the strong hand. Unless CO has AA KK, that's not a bad position to be in.
Of course, are you willing to risk your tourney life at this point? Given the size of your stack, maybe you are.

[locutus2002]

I probably let this go.

My decision hinges on what CO would open-miniraise and push with. It's probably pretty easy for everyone at the table to see that SB is the easy money. I think CO is probably trapping SB when he opened, has made hero for a drawing hand or a small pair when he pushed.

Hero is getting 2.3:1 in the center for 1/2 his chips.
The center bet is slightly positive. If one player has a pair then hero is 1:2 in the hand. or ~13% above expected return => ~EV=670 X 13% => ~90.

So if the center pot is worth ~90, in the side pot I am putting up 670 to win 760 (670 + ~EV90), and need to be ~47% in the hand.
Villain must be playing AQo or worse here to make this work.
I think its too close and I let it go.

[Shammu]

Ok, you said that you did not want to lose the SB action and that's why you limped in and you know that he is short stack so there is a big chance that he will push, I don't get it, why would you fold here? was not that your intention? If you did not want for that to happen you should have raised PF, the CO action was expected, he wants to play the SB heads up and you should have known that this would happen.

[PrayingMantis]

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i don't think you can just call the first time preflop if you aren't planning on callling in this spot the second time if this eventuality arises.

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Generally I agree with that, but I think it isn't as clear (and I've seen another repeat what you're saying). First, if SB pushes behind and CO folds (which is an option, I don't think CO auto pushes against SB with anything.) I happily call and am an overall favorite. This will happen only a minority of the time, obviously, but IMO, not isolating CO by reraising is still probably better than doing so before SB acts.

Now, when both have pushed, it's a tricky situation (of course I expected it to happen big % of the time, but I can still re-evaluate). As much as I think about it, it seems like a very close decision, and practically a neutral CEV spot, with a chance to get my stack 2.5 times bigger or bust.

I think that's why it's an interesting spot. In most cases I'd simply raise CO. But this particular spot is unique IMO because it put me in a position where I clearly have very small overall edge (if at all), and about to risk my whole tourney. These are the situations we theoretically discuss here so often.

[Che]

PM-

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I clearly have very small overall edge

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I know you said CO was loose/bad, but if he has at least 3 functioning brain cells he should realize that people tend to raise him light (and he may even realize the SB is hyperaggressive) so he can push a wide variety of hands to isolate the SB.

As such, it isn't *clear* to me that this is a marginal situation for you.

Basically, you set a trap for an agressive player and caught two LAG's for the price of one. I don't see how you can consider folding AK in that situation.

Later,
Che

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, you set a trap for an agressive player and caught two LAG's for the price of one. I don't see how you can consider folding AK in that situation.

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Again, this is not so simple IMO. In the actual hand I called immidiately. After the fact I started to think about this situation more (regardless of the results, as I do this with hands I win or lose), and realized that there's more into it.

They are not crazy players. I gave my read in my initial post. I can elaborate on this. My best case scenario is something like for CO to hold say AJ and SB K8 (see schwza post above and my reply), but in MANY cases, even if they hold weak hands like 77 for CO and K9 for SB for instance, calling is slightly overall -CEV. I think that most of the time this will be the case, and cases were both have pocket pairs don't compensate for it, if you think about the fact that I'm fighting on 2 pots here (half my stack in each of them).