Almost FT, A7o

[MLG]

I'm glad adanthar has such faith in my instincts, but they can be wrong sometimes. I still think its a fold (although I'm always calling with A10, and maybe 90% with A9), but I can't give you calcs to back it up. It seems with so many people with similar or smaller stacks the times you bust here cost you a lot more than with other stack distributions.

[PrayingMantis]

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It seems with so many people with similar or smaller stacks the times you bust here cost you a lot more than with other stack distributions.

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As mentioned in the original post, I am pretty low, 2nd lowest at the table and maybe 2nd or 3rd lowest overall.

One more very important factor, that you could conclude from the description of the situation in the OP, if you read it carefully, is that it is relatively difficult to steal. That's because a very aggressive big stack is acting *in front* of you, i.e, it won't usually get folded to you in LP/SB. This significally reduces the potential of future aggression, and increases the relative equity of calling here.

[MLG]

stealing is only gonna be tough until the FT, 2 people away. Also the aggro big stack increases your chances of doubling with a more decent hand like 77 or something if you pick it up on in the next round or 2. I certainly don't think you're in an easy spot. Playing short but not shortest stacks are really really hard close to and at the FT.

[adanthar]

The ICM is definitely flawed. It often says to fold when you should push, but not in this kind of context. Right here, when you have no FE and are up against a hand at least *slightly* better than two cards (he's still probably folding 32o, etc.), you're around a 55% favorite, give or take a couple. That's an edge very close to all of the ones you easily throw away on the bubble of an SNG.

Furthermore, everybody else, both at your table and at the final table, are aware of the payout structure and almost always play too tight. Even the shortest stacks will be able to steal, as long as the other guy's stack takes a big hit if he loses the hand; resteals when you sense weakness are huge, too (I will often push with something like a QT or a 97s the minute the big stack minraises instead of pushes). If anything, rather than being weak/tight, most people here underestimate how much patience and selective aggression work for you at an FT.

For the record, of the last six FT's I've made, I've got 3 1'sts, 2 2'nds, and a 3'rd. Some of that is running hot, but just passing on spots like these (and then pushing that same A7 to a minraise) is enough to move up to a much bigger payout.

[PrayingMantis]

You make good points, but most of them are not really relevant to the discussed situation, IMO. For instance, the fact that people are aware of the paying structure can mean many things. By itself it doesn't say anything. Some peope play too tight, some play too loose, some wait for others to bust, some take marginal +EV spots too often. Any decision should be made according to the specific conditions.

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Even the shortest stacks will be able to steal, as long as the other guy's stack takes a big hit if he loses the hand;

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That's generally true of course, but when a very aggressive big stack acting in front of you, as I already mentioned above, your stealing potential in this particular situation is diminished by a lot.

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resteals when you sense weakness are huge, too

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Thanks for the information, but I'm the last player who needs to learn when to resteal.

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(I will often push with something like a QT or a 97s the minute the big stack minraises instead of pushes).

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Well, again, this is not very relevant. I mentioned big stack is a strong player. He is not miniraising you here.

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If anything, rather than being weak/tight, most people here underestimate how much patience and selective aggression work for you at an FT.

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Thanks for the advice. I don't know what does this have to do with anything, since again, I'm the last one who you should teach what is patience and selective aggressiveness.

In any case, claiming that calling with AT-A9 in the spot we discuss is "close", like you did earlier, is *extremely* weak-tight, period. Regardless of any theoretical talk about patience as a virtue. Over-patience = losing money in MTTs.

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For the record, of the last six FT's I've made, I've got 3 1'sts, 2 2'nds, and a 3'rd.

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Well, I ran unbelievably hot in April, for instance, in the $109 MTTs I have played. I'll skip the details if you don't mind. What does it have to do with anything? If I won more money than you did, does it mean that I'm right and you're wrong? Or vice versa?


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but just passing on spots like these (and then pushing that same A7 to a minraise) is enough to move up to a much bigger payout.

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This is very much results-oriented thinking. I can tell you that NOT passing a spot like this is what brought me to 4th place in this specific tourney, for a ~$2500 win. Tell me I'm wrong. Unfortunately, that's not the best way to think about it. And again, I don't know what MTTs you're playing, but miniraises are not very common where I usualy play.

[adanthar]

Sorry about the late response, but here it is:

First, even an aggressive stack will not be raising every hand. If he's raising literally EVERY hand, all the more reason not to call, because he'll be called soon; either he'll win and you'll make the final table or he'll lose and you'll have FE again.

Right now, I basically play any MTT's I can find with an overlay, from $20 to $200. I've never seen a final table on which at least 2-3 people didn't limp, minraise, etc. Even on the sites with the strongest cores of MTT players, it just doesn't happen. Maybe the Party 109's are specifically that hard, I don't know.

As to the hand, all the ICM does is count up how much each chip you have is worth. Here, my guess is the ICM will say that your 8 BB are actually worth somewhere around a sixth or seventh place finish or so. I know that you aren't playing for sixth or seventh, but the point is you have more equity in the prize pool than you probably realize, and the 'each additional chip is worth less' idea should be given the greatest weight at final tables due to the payout structure that, up until a certain point, rewards waiting. (If you had half the chips in play, you'd still only be worth around third place.)

The ICM is flawed because it ignores the effect of having a big stack and FE and assumes everyone is equally skilled. However, precisely because you still probably have some FE (not to mention the 'he called all in with A5o???' factor), won't have a big stack by doubling up, and are more skilled than everyone else there, you shouldn't be taking a 45% chance of eleventh place money and a 55% of doubling your equity to something like fourth to sixth. (For exact numbers I'd have to look at the payouts and stacks.)

[PrayingMantis]

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you shouldn't be taking a 45% chance of eleventh place money and a 55% of doubling your equity to something like fourth to sixth.

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This is a very unconvincing argument, since it completely ignores the huge jump in prize money that comes if you manange to put yourself in a better position to take one of the 3 first places (~$8.5K, ~5.5K, ~3.5K). I'm not playing for 1st because that's how you "supposed" to play, I'm playing for 1st because that's where the money is, very very simple. When I see a clear enough opportunity to get myself up the ladder in a reasonable +EV spot, I'm doing it. This is just one example out of many others. Surely, sometimes it will work, sometime it wouldn't, but I should feel I'm really risking too much in order to simply pass on something (it will happen much more often in later stages, obviously).

If you think that by doubling up here you gain nothing but a chance to win 4th, 5th or 6th on an equal distribution, then you should probably fold everything in this spot. I see why you think calling with AT is close.

Doubling up here on a clear +CEV spot can give me a very significant leverage for gaining more advantage towards the final stages of this game. My stealing potential will increase dramatically, and the fact that they saw me call all-in with A7o is very helpul for my image, as a weapon against steals. You are ignoring too many factors in your analysis of this situation.

Again, I have no problem with discussing how close is calling with A7o in this spot. However, it is very far from being an obvious fold, like you have stated before, and apparatnly still think so.