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#1
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SS2 Phil Hellmuth Story
In the tournament section of SS2, Doyle tells a story of Phil Hellmuth raising with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
the flop comes Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (may not have been a five but it was irrelavent). Phil bets, gets raised all in and folds! And Doyle says he admired the play (Phil's fold) - WTF? He says because it was early in the tournament, this fold was correct... I don't get it. 14 or 15 NUT outs? |
#2
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Re: SS2 Phil Hellmuth Story
Its just because its early in a tournament and the edge of the OESFD there over a made hand is somewhat small. Its a good fold if you expect to have larger edges to take advantage of later.
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#3
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Re: SS2 Phil Hellmuth Story
it is never a good fold.
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#4
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Re: SS2 Phil Hellmuth Story
Never? You're a small dog (something like 57/43) to a set and, if the blinds are still small relative to stack sizes, you might not even have pot odds to call. I'd never fold it myself, but I don't quite believe folding is unequivocally wrong for everybody in every situation everywhere for all time.
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#5
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Re: SS2 Phil Hellmuth Story
[ QUOTE ]
Never? You're a small dog (something like 57/43) to a set and, if the blinds are still small relative to stack sizes, you might not even have pot odds to call. I'd never fold it myself, but I don't quite believe folding is unequivocally wrong for everybody in every situation everywhere for all time. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I wish the blinds and bet amounts had been discussed. And A9 is possible, but then you pick up all your pair outs. And you can't looke for every monster under the bed. If he had less than 10% of his stack involved, it was probably not a bad fold - but the fact that Doyle leaves these details out really annoys me. |
#6
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Re: SS2 Phil Hellmuth Story
yeah, Ghazbans post was exactly what i wanted to type but i lack the ability to but thoughts into words so succinctly...
I agree regarding monsters, stack/bet sizes are essential and we all know how much PH loves a huge laydown. |
#7
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Re: SS2 Phil Hellmuth Story
I think a simple way to look at it is this...Even if HALF the deck would give him a winner (which it wouldn't), he is at that point 50-50 to catch. Would you literally flip a coin early in a big tournament to see if you would play on?
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#8
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Re: SS2 Phil Hellmuth Story
If he had half the cards in the deck he would be over a 50/50 shot, he has two shots at it...
As it was with the amount of outs that he had (17) he was over a 50/50 shot, probably close to 58/42... What would be curious is to see what he finihsed up in that tourney |
#9
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Re: SS2 Phil Hellmuth Story
You are confusing your terminology, but I think I see your point.
Your theory misses a very important point. He is not wagering even money. By calling, he gets more than what he risks. If you bet 10,000 and get 14000 in return, you should be willing to bet on an even money situation. |
#10
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Re: SS2 Phil Hellmuth Story
what if your opponent shows you A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and you think you have a pretty big edge over the rest of the table (which i suspect PH probably does)?
Not that i would fold... |
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