AK in trouble on the turn - hold'em or fold'em?

McMelchior · #1 11-30-2005, 07:20 PM

PStars $5 re-buy, down to 71 players, and the average stack is around t110,000.

Villain is an active player, loose and aggressive without being neither donk, maniac or real tough.

I have been playing tight; three hands earlier I have increased my stack by t20,000 by pushing two cards from the BB after 3 limpers, including villain, and making them fold.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t6000 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop

UTG (t44844)
UTG+1 (t197797)
MP1 (t384544)
Hero (t133448)
CO (t90616)
Button (t293980)
SB (t120576)
BB (t197995)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t6000, 1 fold, Hero raises to t18000, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls t12000.

Flop: (t47,400) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets t36000, UTG+1 calls t36000.

I'm not crazy about that call, but I have seen villain gamble before, and I'm willing to put KsQs in his range. Or he could be way ahead with a slowplayed pair of JJ. AA? Highly unlikely.

Turn: (t119,400) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets t143497 (All-In), Hero ???

Can I put him on KsTs? That would be soo farfetched. I believe he would have opened AQ for a raise PF, and definitively bet (or CR'ed) them on the flop. 22 seems impossible.

I don't see any possible holdings of his I'm behind now where I can call with the pot offering me 2.5 : 1.

So it all comes down to: What could he be playing this way?

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

#2 11-30-2005, 07:25 PM

AJ is the only real hand I can think of that you're behind that seems to fit with your read, although AQ seems possible. I'd probably call, there are lots of hands that you are beating that make this play.

#3 11-30-2005, 07:53 PM

If he had a monster, there is no reason for him to bet out after you bet the flop. At this stage of the tourney there is no way I'm giving up this hand. You are only facing a pot sized bet for all of your chips. If he would have checked, you would ended up having to put all your chips in anyways. If he has you beat good for him. My guess is more often than not you will win. Seems to me he is pushing with junk because he is afraid his hand won't hold up vs. the flush and str8 draw or he just has crap and wants the pot.

ononimo · #4 11-30-2005, 08:22 PM

Very odd turn play from the villain ... the all-in lead bet makes me discount MOST hands that already have you beat (set, AJ, AQ, and KT). the only hand that has you beat that i could possibly see making this play is QJ (with which i could see a loose player limping UTG and calling the preflop raise and flop bet) ... even then, it's a poor way to play it but it seems more plausible than the hands i mentioned earlier.

this may be wishful thinking but i think it's likely that you're still ahead in the hand and the all-in turn bet means that the villain has a hand that picked up more outs on the turn ... e.g. some spade draw that now has a straight draw or paired up (T9s, QTs) or simply a straight or flush draw that making a desperate attempt to push you off a hand.

busting out with only TPTK on a scary board always sucks but i'd call simply because i wouldn't be able to make any sense out of that bet on the turn. a check-raise would have been much scarier and made a lot more sense from a hand that we are trailing ...

Steve · #5 11-30-2005, 08:35 PM

I doubt he's on a total bluff given that he has to expect to get called here. I mean, from his POV what hands could you have that you won't call with? Most bluffers would wait for a more ragged board than this. Unless you have the imagine of being very tight and bluffable.

McMelchior · #6 12-01-2005, 03:01 PM

Sorry, Guys, fell asleep during the WPT Battle of the Champs ... yawn!

[ QUOTE ]
If he had a monster, there is no reason for him to bet out after you bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ] Now, wouldn't this be a great reason for him to push? I do this once in a while myself ... usually very successfully. Pushing the nuts to represent a bluff is not uncommon at this level.

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you have the imagine of being very tight and bluffable

[/ QUOTE ] Definitively not. I haven't folded one hand to a raise at this table so far.

All in all, I simply couldn't put my opponent on a hand I could beat here, except for a raw bluff. And I just didn't have enough of a read to give villain 20% or more credit for a bluff here.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

#7 12-01-2005, 03:18 PM

judging by his strange play here, the only hand i'm worried that he has is JJ, otherwise seems like a complete bluff/semi-bluff. I probably get busted out on this hand, unless I was confident enough that he would play a JJ this way, then i fold.

#8 12-01-2005, 05:34 PM

I agree with the JJ hand, but shouldn't he have pushed on the flop insted of the turn? I think, that's what I would have done. But then again, I'm not limping with JJ either. I'm calling this one since I think he's on a semi bluff with all the draws. Then again, he could be betting the nuts, but this is just too weird for this hand and the way it has played so far. I think a check-raise on the flop would have made more sense. Maybe this guy saw something on ESPN that says to do it this way.