Do I call this ridiculous bet?

[jcm4ccc]

PP $50 + $5, No reads unfortunately. Villian had not done anything noticeably stupid to this point.

I have a feeling you guys are going to flame me again.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter

BB (t770)
UTG (t2410)
MP1 (t1200)
MP2 (t1280)
CO (t1450)
Button (t1455)
Hero (t1435)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1455 (All-In)</font>

[Ryendal]

no

[Freudian]

I would want to call just to see what kind of hand he has. But I wouldn't.

[microbet]

No. AK or JJ scared to play OR AA or KK hoping for someone who thinks they are crazy. Or maybe he's crazy and shows you 27.

[11t]

I hate calling off my stack with AK, I fold here.

[gasgod]

On occasion, even decent players who think they never get action with premium hands will push a monster on the theory that that they might as well try to bust somebody rather than try to win a few BB's. The fact that you are considering calling shows that this tactic has some merit.

I fold here. If he's pushing AQo or some crap, then he's welcome to my blind.

GG

[nate1729]

Say the button does this with any two cards. He's betting 1450 to win 50. Say you only call with AA-JJ. When he's called he wins the 2900 pot 11% of the time; when he isn't he wins 50. You'll get AA-JJ (1/17)*(4/13) or about 2% of the time. So the EV of this play for him is .98(50) - 1450 (.02)(.89 - .11) or approximately +23 chips.

Obviously, the fact that folding AK is exploitable by a strategy against which you should call with AK does not, in itself, prove anything. But my instinct is that, absent reads, folding to a 29BB all-in raise is slightly too tight. Of course you might have a general read that says you should fold, or tournament considerations might swing this to a fold, or, most likely, he might be (soundly) pushing with far fewer hands.

I think the decision is close, and didn't want all the replies to this thread to be dismissive noes.

I should really get an actual knowledge of game theory someday...

--Nate

[maddog2030]

This is the easiest fold of folds. You'd need a 55% over his range of hands to even think about calling here, and given the weirdness of his play, it's certainly not screaming Ax or Kx.

[Myst]

Easy fold.

[ricochet420]

Nope.