ATo river

[Lurker4]

BB in this hand is something like 40/30/2ish, so laggy but seems to read hands decent and have an idea of when to apply pressure/put on the brakes, at least from the several hands I've seen him play. Don't remember stats/read on button but probably is loose/bad since he openlimped on the button. I think I was planning on calling down the turn raise, but what's your river plan when I hit twopair, check/call, bet/call, checkraise/call, checkraise/fold?

Party Poker 10.00/20.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(4 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, Button calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, Button calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

River: (10.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero...

Final Pot: 17.50 BB.

[imported_leader]

I would CR, I'm not sure whether it's right or not though. I wouldn't lead here. The T doesn't change anything for him. So he'll almost always bet it. If it goes bet-raise, then you lose BT a lot which I don't like. So if it's not CR, I'd go C/C

[Digs]

I really dont like a river cr. Given the nature of the board I think the probability that this is a worse 2 pair is very slim (I dont see villain betting ax here much at all). Obviously if that's correct (which is definatly up for contention) a c/r would suck as worse hands are folding and better hands are calling or making it 3.

I'm torn between check/call and bet/fold honestly.

Obviously we want to c/c if villian has trips, which I see as unlikely but possible, a 3, a flush, or a semibluff with the k [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or other air.

The hands we want to b/f are a naked ace or a crappy pp that tried for a free sd, and worse aces up.

I really think the only hand he's rasing us here that we beat is a5 or something, and even then I feel it's not a big enough % chance to call a river raise.

After writing all this out c/c feels better to me fwiw.

[Lurker4]

[ QUOTE ]
I really dont like a river cr. Given the nature of the board I think the probability that this is a worse 2 pair is very slim (I dont see villain betting ax here much at all). Obviously if that's correct (which is definatly up for contention) a c/r would suck as worse hands are folding and better hands are calling or making it 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

For this Villain, Ax as in twopair always bets this river when checked to but likely just calls if I lead. Ax as in A9-A6 might bet as well, w/a lower chance as the x gets lower IMO. If I c/r river, Aces up is probably always calling, not sure about a lone Ace though.

[Lurker4]

What do you do if 3-bet though, as that will certainly happen here a decent % of the time.

Just check/call. You didn't pass much if you were behind.

[Digs]

I really dont think a lone ace is betting enough here, plus the added fact that they have to call the raise to make the play work.

I don't know what to set the probability of a c/r getting 2 bets out of a naked ace here, but I'd guess &lt; 10%.

I really think the only hand we get an extra bet out of consistanly that we beat is aces up.

I don't think that happens enough vs. the times we see a 3, diamonds or a set after the turn action to make a c/r viable.

can't we fold the turn?
we are very likely to be drawing dead with a 3-flush and 4-straight on the board. any diamond on the river is death.
if button does not have specifically K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], we are way behind to at least one player.

[imported_leader]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do if 3-bet though, as that will certainly happen here a decent % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's part on of the draw backs with CR'ing. I mean the pot would be huge if buttons still there and couldn't he 3-bet with 2 pair? So you have to call I think.