OESD + Flush draw turn decision

#1 12-29-2005, 03:39 AM

Villian seems to be LAG showing 54/14/2.1 over 35 hands

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+1 ($12.75)
UTG+2 ($35.25)
MP1 ($53.50)
MP2 ($58.25)
MP3 ($18.75)
CO ($43.75)
Hero ($48.25)
SB ($20.75)
BB ($47.75)
UTG ($14.00)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1, UTG+2 calls $1, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, 2 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.5, UTG+2 raises to $1, MP2 calls $1, Hero raises to $10, UTG+1 calls $9.50, UTG+2 folds, MP2 raises to $19, Hero calls $9, UTG+1 calls $1.75.

Turn: ($55.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 bet $28 Hero???

Should I have pushed the flop after being raised or is a call better? When the board pairs I may be drawing dead so is it time to get out or do I roll the dice on my draws?

Fallen Hero · #2 12-29-2005, 03:43 AM

there's enough dead money on the flop to push and be perfectly happy with it (precisely because you can get into this kind of situation on the turn. As played ...it sucks, but I probably fold

#3 12-29-2005, 03:45 AM

I push out of tilt

This will surprise you:
Code:<hr /><pre>
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 68.4185 % 68.01% 00.46% { Td8d }
Hand 2: 31.5815 % 31.15% 00.46% { Ac5c }</pre><hr />

Fallen Hero · #4 12-29-2005, 03:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I push out of tilt

This will surprise you:
Code:<hr /><pre>
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 68.4185 % 68.01% 00.46% { Td8d }
Hand 2: 31.5815 % 31.15% 00.46% { Ac5c }</pre><hr />

[/ QUOTE ]

that's on the flop O_o

#5 12-29-2005, 04:18 AM

haha whoops no wonder it surprised me

#6 12-29-2005, 04:20 AM

OK the real numbers are more reasonable
Code:<hr /><pre>Board: 7d 5d 5h 6h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.5496 % 29.72% 00.00% { Td8d }
Hand 2: 70.4504 % 70.86% 00.00% { Ac5c }

</pre><hr />
borderline fold, if you think you have implied odds if you hit you can call

#7 12-29-2005, 04:21 AM

push flop and talk trash after you hit.

#8 12-29-2005, 04:23 AM

Yeah on the flop my hand is in good shape against most possible holdings. Right now I'm trying to learn how to better play hands like this. In the past my approach has generally been to call the flop and turn if the odds look good. My plan should be to take a free card on the turn if my flop bet is called and they check to me on a blank right? Should I generally just push the flop immediately and skip the $10 bet in this case?

#9 12-29-2005, 04:46 AM

His call raise on the flop doesn't make much sense to me with this many people in the pot.

I think he is as likely to have an 89 for a straight as he to have the full house/quads on the turn.
77: 3 ways
66: 3 ways
55: 1 way
full house/quads total: 7 ways

89: 12 ways
straight total: 12 ways

If he has the straight he takes away 3 of your lower end straight outs and 1 of your higher end straight outs and leaves you with 11 outs for the river. In which case your getting close to the right pot odds to call.

If either one of them has the full house or quads then your not getting the right pot odds to call.

Also someone could have the higher flush draw here. Taking way those 9 outs.

I think that you can fold on the turn. As for the flop, I don't mind the way you played it. The first raise had folding equity and then you had pot odds to call the reraise. I would have favored just calling on the flop rather than trying to semibluff 3 opponents that already called a small bet/raise.

#10 12-29-2005, 05:21 AM

Pushing the flop is not a semibluff, it's a value bet.

Edit: if both villains have sets (at least one is likely), you're flipping. There's dead money in the pot. Easy push.