River raise comes out of nowhere

wdeadwyler · #1 11-09-2005, 04:19 AM

Villain in this hand is 77/15 31%/46% wtsd/wonsd with a 2.71 aggro factor after 246 hands. I followed him to my current table after I saw him donk of 2.5 buyins at another table. When I first got to this table he was at 17. After doubling twice he as slowly work4ed his way up to 100. His loose donkish play has kinda dissapeared, I think he was on tilt at the other table. He has generally been respecting my play and staying out of pots with me. He is by no means good, he is still a donk, but I think he knows I am better and avoids donkish play with me. River seems like a clear value raise, but can I fold getting better than 3-1?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Edit: I clearly love the word donk.

Hero ($139.07)
UTG ($110.02)
MP ($38.05)
Button ($60.43)
SB ($69.20)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($5.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4.

Turn: ($13.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $8, UTG calls $8.

River: ($29.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $17, UTG raises to $40, Hero ??

Malachii · #2 11-09-2005, 06:01 AM

I don't know what half those stats mean. I think you gotta let this one go... river raises like that are seldom bluffs.

wdeadwyler · #3 11-09-2005, 06:15 PM

bump, only one reply? What do you think villains range is? Clear fold? Clear call?

xorbie · #4 11-09-2005, 06:17 PM

I would fold unless I was playing badly.

Hattifnatt · #5 11-09-2005, 06:19 PM

Pretty easy fold imo.

PokerFink · #6 11-09-2005, 06:22 PM

Looks like a slowplay to me. I would fold unless I've seen villian do this type of thing on a bluff.

#7 11-09-2005, 06:28 PM

He has Ah 4h. He called the flop on the gutshot, then the turn with the flush draw, then raised the river when he hit. Regardless, he didn't hit top pair on the river (since the river didn't make a top pair), and I don't think he's raising here wtihout at least better than top pair. Easy fold. You'd have to be getting something like 5:1 to even consider calling. And I wouldn't give it serious thought until it was 7-8:1.

emil3000 · #8 11-09-2005, 06:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold unless I was playing badly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I play badly a lot though.

wdeadwyler · #9 11-09-2005, 06:42 PM

There is 87 in the pot and only 23 for me to call, thats 3.78-1. If I am good here 21% of the time its a profitable call (barely). Am I not good here a 5th of the time?

#10 11-09-2005, 06:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is 87 in the pot and only 23 for me to call, thats 3.78-1. If I am good here 21% of the time its a profitable call (barely). Am I not good here a 5th of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're good 10-20% of the time. You say he hasn't been playing completely terrible, and I just don't see anyone raising here with less than two pair. If he's bluffing and you caught him so be it, but you have to have a hell of a good read that he's capable of making than kind of a play AND makes it regularly.