Does anyone know the odds of hitting the Party Bad Beat Jackpot?

[grant]

My guess is a few million to one, has anyone done the calculation? I could not find it in search...

[phixxx]

Does anyone know how many threads similar to this one have been made recently?

My guess is 344,292.

[MicroBob]

the jackpot usually hits between 100k and 200k I think.
This is easily the highest it's been.

If we generally assume $150k is the average size of the jackpot then just see that they take $0.50 out for each hand and you're somewhere around the 1 in 300k range or higher.
This isn't quite accurate because party keeps a percentage of the $0.50 for themselves and because not all the hands are raked thus don't drop the $0.50.

but I suspect it hits around once every 250k to 500k JP hands or so. maybe more, maybe less.

[Wayne]

Typically the JP gets up to $150,000-$200,000 on average before someone wins it. Sometimes much more, sometimes way less. Since each table contributes 50 cents, there are about 300k-400k raked hand played before the JP is hit. Maybe less, as the JP gets seeded each time

300k to 1 for the table seems to be a good guess. Your chance of having the losing hand: 3 million to 1.

[grant]

I think the jackpot was almost this high the last time (winner got $159k, so it must have been $454k).

I wonder if the simulations people run for millions of hands could be used to get a #, or if it is feasible to do it analytically.

[MicroBob]

the chances of hitting it go up if EVERYONE plays every JP potential hand until they can't possibly hit it.

for maximum BBJ EV you should call a capped pot with 88 on a board of AAK because you might hit running 8's and someone else might have AA.
you should also be playing 32s and even 62s UTG for the straight-flush possibilities.

Even the BBJ hungry players don't do this.

you can try to simulate how semi-normal players play and then run a SIM...but you are only approximating how the players play so you can't get it precise of course.

I think the better way is to go back and look at history and see how often it has hit in the past....and by doing that you get somewhere around the 1 in 300k range (or so).
Far more accurate then trying to do a simulation I think since you're not trying to APPROXIMATE how real players play....you are actually figuring the chances of hitting hit based on how people REALLY HAVE played in the past (and presumably will continue to play for the most part).

[mcozzy1]

[ QUOTE ]
for maximum BBJ EV you should call a capped pot with 88 on a board of AAK because you might hit running 8's and someone else might have AA.


[/ QUOTE ]

That happened at a local casino when the jackpot was about $250,000 (the largest ever before party started theirs). This woman had pocket 8s and it was 3 bets cold to her pre-flop. So, she folded. Flop was AAK. Running 8s came.

People were mad at her for folding pre-flop. She was playing 5/10 and was down about $1200 already. They couldn't understand that should made a good play.

[radek2166]

IMHO. What is need to hit this thing is 10 players that are only playing to hit the JP. No raises preflop. Play any 2 cards that have a chance of hitting a st flush. IE 26 SOOTED. The problem I ran into is over aggresion. some fool raiseing every hand. Then hitting his 1 2 or 3 outter on the river.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem I ran into is over aggresion. some fool raiseing every hand.

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't think playing aggressively is wrong regardless of jackpot size.

this isn't like trying to hit the stars billionth-hand promotion where you should clearly be auto-folding as quickly as possible.

you can play 10-handed and check it around on every hand and your chance of hitting is still negligible. so you might as well play your normal TAG game and win a few bucks while you're sitting there.

[Xelent]

I agree, just try to play TAG and win some bucks and maybe get really lucky and be the winner of your share of 25% among the 8 players from someone else playing poorly and hitting the JP. Of course the JP needs to be very high for this to be profitable. I believe the +EV numbers are posted on bonushwores.com