River bet - value or spewing?

[lstream]

I have been trying to extract more value on the river, but this one felt a little on the edge to me. Villain had just arrived, but I had the sense he was playing too many hands.

7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___completes___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls

4th Street - (5.80 SB)

Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (3.90 BB)

Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises

6th Street - (7.90 BB)

Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

River - (9.90 BB)

Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___calls

Total pot: (11.90 BB)

Looks fine to me - two pair looks the most likely hand on fifth, so you should be ahead more often than not. I might well end up check/calling, but I miss too many bets when he checks behind with two small pair.

[benwood]

I may be wrong, but I would bet 6th & keep him on the guess rather than showing the weakness. As it is, I would definately bet the river to keep him from checking behind & would feel ok about calling a raise. He will not expect you to have this good of a hand after your 6th st. check.

[Andy B]

Looks fine to me.

Spewing? Whats plan B, check and call? Ugh.

Bet

[Roland]

Looks good to me. I’d say he has either a big buried pair or small two pairs on 5th, most likely. Since you can’t be sure what he’ll do with two small pairs (and because he might have you crushed of course) risking 2-1 on a check-raise attempt doesn’t look that attractive.

I’m not sure I like 3rd though. What did you think seat 2 completed with? You probably knew something I don’t know though, given that he folded. Against an opponent with reasonable standards I kinda like a fold here though.

[lstream]

[ QUOTE ]
I’m not sure I like 3rd though. What did you think seat 2 completed with? You probably knew something I don’t know though, given that he folded.

[/ QUOTE ]
I admit the third street play is really on the edge, and I came real close to folding. Regarding seat 2, my only read was that I have seen him make poor decisions in the past and complete in marginal circumstances. Here he was completing into a live ace and queen. I am not totally sure why, but I thought there was a reasonable chance he was on an ill-advised early steal. So I decided to over-represent my hand in this case, and use his bad decision to put pressure on the ace and queen. Note that the queen had to act first. If he had queens, he has to seriously consider folding given what the two maniacs in front of him just did, and that a live ace has yet to act. So I thought that I might only be in real trouble if the ace had another one to go with his door.

If either the ace or queen raised, then I was going to fold, unless it ended up heads up. On the other hand, if either of them had a small pair with an overcard kicker, I figured the raise would drive them out, and I would be content to play the hand afterwards. I think this hand helped my table image a bit - I got nice action after this when I started with hands like aces or kings.

I agree with the general sentiment on third though - I fold here most of the time.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
given what the two maniacs in front of him just did

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[MRBAA]

egads, you play scary good. I like 3rd as a change up, as long as you are ready to jump right off if you get three-bet (or take one off heads up, but out on fifth unimproved). As long as you don't get tied on when plays like this don't work, they are fine when worked in sparingly IMHO. The raise on fifth just screams out overpair in the pocket, the most likely is JJ based on the Q, A and Ks you've seen. So kings up is likely good here. When it's not, you won't get raised unless he makes trips or the read is wrong. But I see so many players do this wait to fifth thing. If I was the bring in here I make it three to go right there on third with my big pocket pair, and keep leading if checked to as long as your board isn't scary, taking a free one on the river if I don't improve and am still last to act.

[BeerMoney]

Nice hand. Surprised the other guy folded on third. I like the hand, but think you walked right into a raise on fifth.

The river is played perfectly imo. If he hit aces up, he's probably not raising.