Choose your seat (complex)

[Spicymoose]

I think between 3-4 would be better if seat 4 was an unknown, rather than what we have on him.

I am still a bit caught up on these small hand sample stats. I know 39 hands is not very many at all, and it is true that anyone of us could have his stats after 39 hands, but that does not mean that they mean nothing.

The fact that he has played more than 18 of his last 39 hands in our first observations of him means he is probably a bit looser than he should be. Our read could be completely off, and he might end up being a regular, or even tight player, but I think it is better to add probabilities to his stats, rather than just call them null and void. I don't know how to properly assess this probability, but I am sure it is possible somehow.

Just from my random speculation, I would guess that there is a only a 15% chance that his VPIP is under 20, 40% chance his VPIP is between 20-35, 25% chance his VPIP is 35-45, and 15% chance his VPIP is 45-55, and 5% chance his VPIP is over 55. These are just guesses, but I think there is a decent chance he is a loose player, even after only 39 hands.

If you had a player pegged at 85 VPIP after only 20 hands, would you think that meant anything?

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that he has played more than 18 of his last 39 hands in our first observations of him means he is probably a bit looser than he should be. Our read could be completely off, and he might end up being a regular, or even tight player, but I think it is better to add probabilities to his stats, rather than just call them null and void. I don't know how to properly assess this probability, but I am sure it is possible somehow.

Just from my random speculation, I would guess that there is a only a 15% chance that his VPIP is under 20, 40% chance his VPIP is between 20-35, 25% chance his VPIP is 35-45, and 15% chance his VPIP is 45-55, and 5% chance his VPIP is over 55. These are just guesses, but I think there is a decent chance he is a loose player, even after only 39 hands.

If you had a player pegged at 85 VPIP after only 20 hands, would you think that meant anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/show...e=0#Post2852240

I calculate 90% confidence is true VPIP is between 31 and 60.

[TStoneMBD]

another thing is that the weaktighty in the 5 seat never folds his blinds to me. if im in the SB hell call a raise in the BB 90%+ of the time. he also defends liberally when i open from any position. hes just very passive and predictable postflop.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
another thing is that the weaktighty in the 5 seat never folds his blinds to me. if im in the SB hell call a raise in the BB 90%+ of the time. he also defends liberally when i open from any position. hes just very passive and predictable postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I like being on the button w/position when he is in the BB even more, don't you?

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
another thing is that the weaktighty in the 5 seat never folds his blinds to me. if im in the SB hell call a raise in the BB 90%+ of the time. he also defends liberally when i open from any position. hes just very passive and predictable postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I like being on the button w/position when he is in the BB even more, don't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

I prefer being on the button w/position when we have someone who defends their blinds less, and isn't as good a player. He may be weak/tight, but TStone said he is probably a winning player, and therefore less prone to make mistakes. Also, the fact that he defends liberally is not a good thing if I am the one doing the stealing.

Edit: I realize I am advocating a position where I will be stealing against him from the SB when he is BB, but we still have great stealing potential when we are on the button.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
the fact that he defends liberally is not a good thing if I am the one doing the stealing.


[/ QUOTE ]

You have to explain this further because I feel 100% opposite when I have position here.

[Jeff W]

I don't know how to interpret seat numbers. Is seat 2 to the right of seat 1?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know how to interpret seat numbers. Is seat 2 to the right of seat 1?

[/ QUOTE ]


i think seat 2 is to the left of seat 1. from an overhead view, seat 1 is to the right of the dealer and the numbers go clockwise around the table

At a glance I'd sit between 3 and 4 so that I could hammer the tight passive player's BB and take cheap showdowns against the schmucks to my right.

[DrSavage]

I'm at the table already, in seat 1 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]