Tough bubble decision

300/600 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 15996912) - Fri Sep 23 15:35:32 EDT 2005
Table Table 11744 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: BBC4L (1320)
Seat 5: Mills67 (5215)
Seat 6: doublefives (730)
Seat 9: andy_fish (735)
BBC4L posts small blind (150)
Mills67 posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to andy_fish [ Jd, Qd ]
doublefives folds.
andy_fish ?

What I did and results in white.

<font color="white"> andy_fish raises (735) to 735
andy_fish is all-In.
BBC4L folds.
Mills67 calls (435)
Creating Main Pot with $1620 with andy_fish
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5h, 8d, 2s ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Qh ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 5s ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1620 |
Board: [ 5h 8d 2s Qh 5s ]
BBC4L balance 1170, lost 150 (folded)
Mills67 balance 6100, bet 735, collected 1620, net +885 [ 5d Ks ] [ three of a kind, fives -- Ks,Qh,5d,5h,5s ]
doublefives balance 730, didn't bet (folded)
andy_fish balance 0, lost 735 [ Jd Qd ] [ two pairs, queens and fives -- Qd,Qh,Jd,5h,5s ] </font>

[Bigdaddydvo]

This is actually an easy push. What would you rather put your chips in with-a pretty decent hand like QJs or a random hand when the blind hits you? You were called by a small pair and lost a coinflip...what more could you ask for?

Very likely the guy behind me was going to be all-in on any2 next hand which had me thinking. Plus I knew the big stack was going call with almost any2 so I had very little fold equity.

[Shillx]

Fold. You will lose at least 40% of the time and you have zero fold equity. Even if you double up you aren't a lock to make the $$$ and you have little to no shot at getting 1st. The big stack will still be able to handcuff you by moving in, so getting to T1500 has little upside. You have to just wait and hope that you squeeze ITM. Let the other short stack play a pot in his BB the very next hand (which he will lose &gt; 50% of the time there is a showdown).

My first thought was it was an easy push, and I think if the blinds were smaller, say 100/200, it would be. But upon further review...considering the big stack is definitely calling you, you'll probably be a 60/40 fave at best, and the fact that the other short stack gets hit by the blinds before you, I think this is a rare fold-and-hope-the-other-shorty-dies-first situation.

SnG PT says easy fold too when I enter 65% for big stacks calling range. I blew it.