all in or stop and go?

[mlagoo]

i'm pretty sure this could all be solved with math, but im not very good at math [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

it would look something like...

(1) if we stop and go
(a) x1% of the time, villian pairs an overcard on the flop and we get it allin drawing to 2 outs.
(b) x2% of the time, villian had an overpair preflop and we get it allin drawing to 2 outs.
(c) x3% of the time, villian "makes a big call" with unpaired overcards and we get it allin with villian drawing to 6 outs.
(d) x4% of the time, villian "makes a big call" with an underpair and we get it allin with villian drawing to 2 or 5 outs.
(e) x5% of the time, villian does not connect and folds and we take down the 1300 chips in the pot.

(2) if we push preflop
(a) x1% of the time, we get it allin on the good side of a race
(b) x2% of the time, we get it allin as an 80/20 fav.
(c) x3% of the time, we get it allin as a 20/80 dog.
(d) x4% of the time, we get it allin as a ~70/30 fav (i am home for christmas and dont have any of my poker tools with me) against a hand like A8.
(e) x5% of the time, villian picks up some wierd draw on the flop and we get it allin with villian drawing to 8-15 outs twice.
(e) x6% of the time, villian folds and we take down the 900 chips in the pot.

and i think thats everything.

now all that has to be done is to give villian a CO opening range and a preflop and postflop calling range, and crunch numbers. this is where things get a bit fuzzy for me.

considering the situation intuitively, i think its more profitable to push preflop.