JJ - turn decision

[TJD]

Hi again all,

Now playing 15/30 full and this is one from that game. Since it became HU very quickly and the fact that it IS HU is very important, I hope you do not mind me cross posting it here.

<font color="green"> Villain is 36/9 fairly aggressive post flop and is in the top 25% of "bluffers". He raises the turn with less than top pair 20% of the time. He is only moderately loose post flop
</font>

Thanks all

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

<font color="blue"> I check behind here since if I am CR, I will feel uncomfortable about either calling or folding. (I am pretty sure he will bet the river with any 2 if I check the turn)

Is this right? If not why not?

</font>

River: (4.50 BB) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

[Guy McSucker]

I think that, based on your read of this guy as a turn-bluffer, and with that draw-laden board, you need to bet the turn and should be completely comfortable calling down if he check-raises.

The way you played it, since you believe he will bet the river with any two cards, I think a raise for value is in order on the end, because he could have plenty of pairs that he will call with that you beat. Would he 3-bet as a bluff? That could be annoying.

Guy.

[einbert]

My initial reaction is that I really like the way you've played this hand.

Particularly, I feel that the player you listed will almost always act aggressively on the flop (either by betting out or more likely checkraising) with a flopped flush draw. It also seems that this kind of player would, while frequently getting aggro on the flop with top pair, also sometimes wait to checkraise the turn, especially if he reads you as aggressive (so I think this is an important factor in this hand). He is also more likely to check/call the turn with a very strong hand, but he's usually going to have something. And I agree that I am very uncomfortable in dealing with a turn checkraise, although given your description of him I can't possibly see folding to it.

So I guess the key factors here are:
<ul type="square"> He probably doesn't have a flush draw
He might very well have a king
He probably didn't call the flop drawing dead (?) Is he loose enough to?
He is checkraising a HUGE percentage of the time here on the turn, and probably only folding when he's drawing dead anyway
Does he ever checkraise the turn when he is drawing dead? I kind of doubt it.
When he checkraises the turn, what is your approximate equity versus his range of hands? (This is going to be very tricky to come up with but we should try).[/list]So it's going to take a good deal more work, but at the moment my initial reaction is that your play is solidly correct.

One thing that would help, is whether or not you have a read for how he generally would play a flopped flush draw versus a PFR.

[wheelz]

If he's gonna bluff, let him put in 3 BB instead of 1. There's draws out there too so a free card sucks. So I bet the turn.

If he's a big turn bluffer, why would you feel uncomfortable calling him down?

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
The way you played it, since you believe he will bet the river with any two cards, I think a raise for value is in order on the end, because he could have plenty of pairs that he will call with that you beat. Would he 3-bet as a bluff? That could be annoying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this occured to me as well. But it seems that a few factors point towards just calling the river:
A good deal of the time, he has absolutely nothing and will either fold or three-bet, and a three-bet could very well cause us to make a big FTOP mistake if we fold.
The flop checkcall is an indication that he may have flopped a very strong hand.
A lot of the low connectors he may have limped with UTG, if they hit a 7, have hit the board again and thus beat us.

[helpmeout]

Its fine just mix it up a bit mostly betting the turn in these situations.

Against players who FPYO (frequently piss you off) its sometimes best to check the turn and hope he bluffs the river or thinks his pair of 4s beats your A high.

[danzasmack]

[ QUOTE ]
Its fine just mix it up a bit mostly betting the turn in these situations.

Against players who FPYO (frequently piss you off) its sometimes best to check the turn and hope he bluffs the river or thinks his pair of 4s beats your A high.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't feel like "playing scared"? at all?

And again - why not just let him bluff the turn? JJ is good here a lot.

[TJD]

[ QUOTE ]
And again - why not just let him bluff the turn? JJ is good here a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to his stats, if he checkraises me I am BEHIND 80% of the time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If that is the case, why should I be confortable about putting in an additional 2BB after he raises me?

Not disagreeing; just asking. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

T

[TJD]

[ QUOTE ]
There's draws out there too so a free card sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree entirely but I expect to get this bet back on the river when he bluffs his missed draw.

Also paying 2BB extra to see a hand that is ahead on the turn sucks.

Also, folding the best hand to A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] sucks as well.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Nobody said it was an easy game [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

T

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
According to his stats, if he checkraises me I am BEHIND 80% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]
If this is really true, the decision is ridiculously easy. But I don't really see how you could come up with that number so easily.