Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Sports Betting
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #1  
Old 11-27-2005, 03:36 PM
jedinite jedinite is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26
Default Is this worth a hedge/middle (Arizona +9.5)

I've got a five-team teaser, 2.5 units wagered to win 10 units. I strongly expect this teaser to be live entering the late game, based on the early action.

I'll be riding 2.5 units to win 20 units on Arizona +9.5
I know this is a great position to be in, as I calculate the EV of AZ +9.5 to be extremely significant (as they're already a single-unit play in my picks at +3.5).

Question is, is it worth trying to middle with Jacksonville -3.5 (-105) as a hedge, something like 3 units on Jacks -3.5 where I could win both bets if Jacks wins by a TD? What if Jacksonville moves to -3 (-110) or even moving it to -3 (-120 or -115).

I'm most inclined to just let it ride, but my thoughts are if I can get Jacksonville -3 -110 it might be worth a middling hedge.

Jacksonville wins by exactly 3 I'd win my one unit bet on AZ +3.5, push on Jacks -3 and win the tease for a net of +13 units

If Jacks wins by 4-9 I'd lose 1.1 unit on AZ +3.5, win 3 units on Jacks -3 and win 10 units on the tease for a net of +11.9 units

If Jacks wins by less than three or Arizona wins outright, I win +1 unit on AZ +3.5, win the tease for +10 units, and lose 3.15 units on the hedge/middle for a net of +7.85 units.

If Jacks wins by more than 10, I lose the tease for -2.5 units, lose the one unit on AZ for -1.1 unit, and win the hedge for +3 units for a total of -.6 unit.

Or I could hedge four units to guarantee a small profit, etc...

Thanks in advance for the feedback...
Reply With Quote
 


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:59 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.