ZeeJustin: A Case Study

[N 82 50 24]

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Are live tournaments deeper then online tournies?

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Generally yes. The WSOP this year started with 200bb stacks. But I dunno whether the average stack remains at this number throughout the tourney.

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I think the deep stack tournaments on Stars offer just about as much play as any live or online tournament anywhere.

[Ulysses]

N,

Do you like blackjack and craps?

[N 82 50 24]

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N,

Do you like blackjack and craps?

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LOL, never played either one... although I've been to AC with my friend Steve (aka stevesbets) and I've watched a bit of craps. I don't really understand why people like that game.

[Ulysses]

N,

Craps and blackjack are really fun. In a casino, craps is just about the greatest thing ever.

I assume you were at a bad table. If you are at a hot table with lots of hot chicks cheering and everyone is drinking and having a great time and getting PAID, well, how can you not love that game?

[N 82 50 24]

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N,

Craps and blackjack are really fun. In a casino, craps is just about the greatest thing ever.

I assume you were at a bad table. If you are at a hot table with lots of hot chicks cheering and everyone is drinking and having a great time and getting PAID, well, how can you not love that game?

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Hah, yea, must have been at a bad table, because it wasn't anything like that... couple random drunks fools and some old guys who appeared to be convinced they had a strategy to win (they were arguing about which #s to bet on and how to hold the dice when they roll). Was actually kinda sad.

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couple random drunks fools and some old guys who appeared to be convinced they had a strategy to win (they were arguing about which #s to bet on and how to hold the dice when they roll).

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Shhhhhhh. Don't give this out. Are you nuts?

Sounds about as indescribably depressing as when I accidentally wandered into the bingo room at the Nugget in Reno. [violent shudder] Thanks a lot for bringing back that memory.

[pfkaok]

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N,

I don't think you understood my point before. Let's say, for sake of argument, that I make $500/hr playing cash games. So, for me to enter a $10k tourney (including travel expenses let's say $12k), I have to play 24hrs of poker.

I am not a big fan of tournaments, but like to play them from time to time. However, 24 hours of my time (two weeks or more worth of poker for me) is not worth it for the value I personally would get from playing that tournament (combination of fun and EV).

But, if I can play that tournament by investing a few hundred dollars and a few hours in a satellite one evening, that's something I'm willing to do. Obviously, I only have an x% chance of winning, but that's fine. I either win and play or don't win and don't.

I only think your reasoning applies if someone is definitely going to play in the tournament and is going to keep playing satellites until they win a seat. In that case, it makes the most sense to play whatever option is the highest EV for you.

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Well. I think that shows pretty well that you're really in it for the gamble, fun, excitement side. And thats fine. But, I mean, looking at it from an EV standpoint, it seems you're being very shortsighted when you're weighing options. If your EV in the sats, is only say, $200 an hour, vs. $500 for cash games, then you're going to spend a lot more time to win the same number of seats over a couple years. I mean, i guess if you only want to spend 2-3 hours, ever, in your life on playing sats for a big event, then your reasoning makes sense. but if you do several a year, then it seems that they're a waste of time, as on average you'll spend over 50 hours getting your seat through sats. I mean if your BR is big enough that you can afford to take a shot, you don't necessarily need to play 24 EXTRA hours to make up for it or whatever, b/c theoretically the 10k event should be +EV anyways.

I think that a lot of people on here are looking to maximize EV, and maximize the chances that they'll get the BR to play in these 10k events all the time. Even though its not that realistic for people, most MTTers would like to get to the point where they can play as many major events as they feel like travelling to. And most would prefer to get to that point in as little time as possible.

For most poeple this would mean an exponential growth in their bankroll, say doubling it 3, 4, 5, or even 6 times. When you look at exponential growth, you have to look at highest possible EV/variance ratio... since most people don't particularly want to go broke and have to restart from scratch. For some reason people think their best shot of making a huge score is to play some sats for a big event, and then strike it big one time for a 6 or 7 figure score. The fact is though, this is such a longshot parlay, and the EV in the sats usually isn't THAT high to make up for it.

In this case it is usually about the fun and experience of playing the big event. I know b/c i've done it myself lots of times. I played tons of WSOP ME sats last year when i shouldn't have. I got very close a few times but didn't quite make it. I also played a sat, and qualified for the WPT in AC in sept. Even though I loved the experience, I almost certainly would have sold the 10k ticket if i could have. Its not that I'm a total nit though, b/c even now that i've thought alot more about the riskiness, and poor EV/variance ratio, I still played several Atlantis qualifiers. But for some reason I REALLY, REALLY wanted to go to that one. Kind of as a great vacation, splurge to start a new year thing, but of course with the chance that I could get a great payday. So, although I didn't make it, I still bought in, even though I'm certainly not "properly" rolled. I know from an EV, bankroll growth its almost certianly not the best choice, but it should be pretty damn fun.

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... i really doubt that most posters here realze that huge swingy-ness in these things.

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Those of who are horseplayers as well as poker players are probably not surprised by these stats. I know I'm not.

Justin's results are akin to a good handicapper who plays only big triples, pick4s and pick6s. Those types won't cash many tickets as opposed to the Win/Place/Show bettors, but when they do, it's usually a biggie.

Looking at those stats, there's no doubt in my mind that Justin is an outstanding player whose recent score was the result a lot of hard work and experience.

Some people here think that any Donk can get lucky in these things. Those types might make it to the top 27 or so, but to make to the final table you have to make 100s of good decisions. It's not Powerball.


Congrats, Justin!