AQs OTB vs total nut

[Redd]

I agree with Alobar that this decision really just depends on how much you know/trust your read. The best information that everyone discussing the hand can use is the Villain's numbers (would you expect his AF to be converged?).

By those numbers, I think a turn cap is ok but, trying to cap the river is way too much. 90/2 is pretty damned aggressive, but it's not like he's 90/5 or anything; he can still find a call for every two bets.

We're about 50/50 that his ace is better than ours. So unless you're confident he can cap the flop, turn, and river with an 8 or pocket (and I wouldn't expect someone with those numbers to do this), the possiblity of other 2p and set hands makes a river raise pretty slim.

Nice to see there are also 90/50/2 nuts at 5/10 and not just 1/2.

Tough to put him on any kind of reasonable range given his nuttiness, but still I slow down to the turn 3-bet and play it as you did. Though a nut, there's still a good chance he has a strong hand, including two pair, A-4 or A-8.

EDIT: I just read the other posts, and it looks like the consensus is to cap rather than call the turn 3-bet. I would agree if I previously had seen him 3-bet the turn with TPMK or less in the face of aggression and a scary board.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
preflop is a no brainer

post flop, this one of those spots only really you can answer because only you know how big a nut he was. Some nuts this is a cap every street hand, others you slow down where you did.

The important thing here is to not play these situations by some number (well I stop at 3 bets on the turn, etc) and make sure you to evaluate the decision purely on how your opponent plays, and not let fear or the size of the pot, or even his suckiness blind you to what the best course of action is.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok I agree with what you said here, the problem I have with these types of players is that they are horribly inconsistent, I saw him c/call the second nut flush HU, after the turn was capped, also saw him 3bet Jhigh on the river .. so he is both capable of slowing down with a monster, and going nuts with nothing

I prob should have mentioned that part in the original thread

this was one of those I'm going to keep raising you to make you fold type hands from him, he showed 65 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and MHIG

[Buckmulligan]

I would definitely cap the turn. If he still leads to us on the river after we cap the turn, however, I'm just peeling.

By the river, I have trouble believing many players would lead hands like KK and QQ. If this guy does, I'm playing the wrong limit.