Take free card or bet for value?

MJL · #1 12-01-2005, 01:31 PM

$5/10 Live. All players are loose and passive. Some are just idiots calling down bottom pair no kicker. If I am in pot they are cautious.

2 limpers I have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I raise, fold to blinds who both call along with limpers.

5 players 10SB

Flop T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

It’s checked to me, I bet, all call.

5 players 7.5BB
Turn 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

It’s checked to me again. I have the nut flush draw, the nut gut shot straight draw and possibly an A or an 8 is good too.

Do I check or bet?

newhizzle · #2 12-01-2005, 01:43 PM

if you can be sure that at least 3 or 4 of them will call, you have value in a bet, but id probably check, getting c/r'd is not good especially if it knocks someone out that would have called, and theres about a zero chance that you have the best hand right now or that everyone will fold

TakeMeToTheRiver · #3 12-01-2005, 01:54 PM

In a live game, you often know if you will be check-raised (at least I feel that way) -- If you are almost certain that you will not be check-raised, I would bet this for value. It could clean up some of your outs as well. If there is any significant chance of being check-raised here, I would check behind and take the free card.

#4 12-01-2005, 01:54 PM

You could make a case good case for betting, but I think like checking more. The main reason is because of your position. If you check, it's likely someone with a hand will come out betting the river. If he gets loose callers after him, you can raise the field if you hit or you can fold if you miss, and you get out cheap.

Bob T. · #5 12-01-2005, 02:02 PM

With a fistfull of outs here, I would check. You aren't likely to win this hand with a bet here, and you might get checkraised. If you do win this hand, you will probably win just as much money, by checking as you would if you had bet, because you might get a bet in front of you that you could raise.

MJL · #6 12-01-2005, 02:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With a fistfull of outs here, I would check. You aren't likely to win this hand with a bet here, and you might get checkraised. If you do win this hand, you will probably win just as much money, by checking as you would if you had bet, because you might get a bet in front of you that you could raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't suspect I will get checkraised but I will certainly get called. If my flush comes it it will be obvious and I will lose most of them on the river. I will hit my hand and win about 30%+ of the time and investing in a bet will 20% equity for that bet if they all call. This is where I wonder about the value.

W. Deranged · #7 12-01-2005, 02:23 PM

With probably 13 or 14 outs here (I think you're As are like 1-2 outs usually) I think you should bet. Betting does a bunch of good things:

1. You have an equity edge if you get called in four places and probably one even if you are just called in three places. With only two callers or a raise and a call, you are just a hair below neutral. The only really bad scenario involves getting check-raised and the hand ending up heads-up.

2. Your hand has a tiny bit of showdown value and betting now might allow you to cash that in the tiny percent of the time it applies (this is a small consideration).

3. Betting may actually mean you get more action on your flush as it makes your hand harder to read.

4. Betting might fold out Ks and clean up your 8 outs some of the time.

And so on.

Basically the idea is that a bet is almost never going to be "bad" (namely more than very slightly negative EV), and often can be quite good. So it seems to me pretty clearly higher EV than checking.

MJL · #8 12-01-2005, 02:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With probably 13 or 14 outs here (I think you're As are like 1-2 outs usually) I think you should bet. Betting does a bunch of good things:

1. You have an equity edge if you get called in four places and probably one even if you are just called in three places. With only two callers or a raise and a call, you are just a hair below neutral. The only really bad scenario involves getting check-raised and the hand ending up heads-up.

2. Your hand has a tiny bit of showdown value and betting now might allow you to cash that in the tiny percent of the time it applies (this is a small consideration).

3. Betting may actually mean you get more action on your flush as it makes your hand harder to read.

4. Betting might fold out Ks and clean up your 8 outs some of the time.

And so on.

Basically the idea is that a bet is almost never going to be "bad" (namely more than very slightly negative EV), and often can be quite good. So it seems to me pretty clearly higher EV than checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was thinking during the hand.

#9 12-02-2005, 01:55 AM

I say check as well. I would be afraid of a large check raise. With two other people still the hand, you can be assured that they have already made thier hand. Take the card for free then make a nice sized bet on the river when your card hits to get payed off.

newhizzle · #10 12-02-2005, 02:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I say check as well. I would be afraid of a large check raise. With two other people still the hand, you can be assured that they have already made thier hand. Take the card for free then make a nice sized bet on the river when your card hits to get payed off.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a limit hand