Folding AA. Can someone do an EV analysis?

[Mr. Peterson]

Final table 6 handed NL Holdem. No ante, blinds are $200/400.

Stacks are as follows.
Small blind (ME); $4,700
Big blind $17,500
UTG $2,300
MP $7,000
Cutoff $12,300
Button $10,200

54,000 in play, 27 entrants at $300 (+10) each. Pays last 5 spots.

1st 40% $3,240
2nd 25% $2,025
3rd 15% $1,215
4th 12% $972
5th 8% $648

OK heres the action. UTG moves allin, MP calls, cutoff moves allin, Button calls, I fold my AA at this point after much deliberation. Big blind folds. MP moans and then folds (of course I am praying he calls and the button takes them all out).

Now this is probably a call, given that the winner of the pot will have a very good shot at first place, and that the button will not take them all out a large percentage of the time. I also know that if I lose I get 5th prize as long as UTG doesn't take down the main pot.

For the record and sake of analysis, UTG has A6s, Cutoff has JJ, Button has QQ.

[JayKon]

Well, I don't know about EV, but the way you describe it, it sounds like you should be able to take at least 4th by folding here - though it would be a tough fold for me. Still, being on the bubble is a tough place, espically when your short stacked.

I think you made an excellent lay down.

[bugstud]

well, having the results in the post sort of makes it harder to say this, but here is a question to answer.

#1 What will UTG go allin with? Had he been doing this often?

Because UTG is actually your only concern here. If UTG beats you, then anyone else in the collective field does you're out, no money. With this sort of action, and you're looking at a chip lead if you win...I would be extremely tempted to play AA here. In favor of folding though is that if UTG loses and mp folds, as he did, you tie for lowest stack so you have nice upward payout potential. As the hands given goes, you need some sort of flush +J/Q or Q66/J66 board to lose. I'd like to hear the results where your fold makes you a few hundred richer, and prove me wrong.

[Mr. Peterson]

The results aren't here, I deliberately didn't post them. The opposing hands are here, and are pretty much as i would have expected, with 2 big pairs and Axs.

UTG has made a few allin plays, but not many (maybe 2 in last 5 rounds), and tends to go allin or fold.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you were one spot further from the bubble, this would be a decision. However, since as you've pointed out all you have to do is avoid having UTG win the main pot to get 5th place money, this is a clear play IMO. Call all-in and hope that UTG doesn't get lucky.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Whitey]

If you call your aces are just better than even money to stand up.below is analysis from Twodimes:

Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah 6h 106656 9.82 974247 89.71 5105 0.47 0.100
Qs Qc 203906 18.78 879061 80.94 3041 0.28 0.188
Js Jh 171110 15.76 911857 83.96 3041 0.28 0.158
As Ad 599231 55.18 481672 44.35 5105 0.47 0.553

I had to guess at the suites but cant imagine it would make much difference to the result.

I wouldnt like to say wether you made the correct decision,but after your fold the 2qs become a 6-4 shot,JJ and A6 are about 5-1 shots each:
pokenum -h ah 6h - qc qs - js jd / as ad
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah 6h 197611 18.20 885197 81.51 3200 0.29 0.183
Qs Qc 694960 63.99 387848 35.71 3200 0.29 0.641
Js Jd 190237 17.52 892571 82.19 3200 0.29 0.176
(hope I worked those odds out correctly)

So by passing your going to get 4th place minimum 50% of the time rather than going out in 5th or 6th about the other 50%(again please correct me if I'm analysing this wrong).

hope this helps.

[ohkanada]

Okay,

I tested the 2 scenarios and then did the EV calculations if you decided to make a deal based on chip counts.

Your equity by calling is $1469 and by folding is $1229. Your fold helps QQ and A6s who both gain in equity.

Due to the many sidepot scenarios I assumed the sidepot was always won by the better hand. This only has a minor affect on the calculations.

Ken Poklitar

[Mr. Peterson]

Thanks for your analysis guys. For the record the QQ held up (and the AA would have won) leaving me with a guaranteed 4th which i managed to improve to 3rd and a deal to give me 20% overall with 10% in play (30/30/20 split) despite the chip leaders each having at least triple my chips at this stage.

So I did pretty well in the end, but if I had played I would've had a decent shot at a win (unlikely for me to deal here unless on very favourable terms).

[Mr. Peterson]

Sorry thats 25/25/20 split with 10% in play 20% already awarded for 4th and 5th.

[shaniac]

I think it's been discussed to death around here, but folding the nuts preflop can never be such a good move, unless you're in a super-satellite.

Or unless 5th place is your goal.

Shaniac