Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

[RED FACE]

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You played poker instead of playing math - great fold

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With enough information, it's ALL math.

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That's true. This auto call stuff is nonsense. If the info is villain has a set he needs to win about twice as much as he actually would if he sucks out. I think if this info is right 90% of the time calling is still at least a slight loser. The break even point may be around 85%-just guessing.

[poboy]

When I first read this I thought you were joking, after reading your other posts I realize you're not. You can't really believe this is a good fold? Keep in mind this is SSNL and villian will have overcards,TP, or some other nonsense as often as he'll have the set. JMO

[xorbie]

No need to raise this flop, if you do you have to call.

[Maulik]

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No need to raise this flop, if you do you have to call.

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[djoyce003]

you can't fold here for 4 bucks man, jeez

Your avatar is hypnotising me.

Eh, seems like these top pair / overpair hands vs. a lot of resistance are the most common difficulty.

My first thought was to immediately call with only $4 or $5 more to go. However, looking at the board and the action, I'm starting to like the fold.

Here are my numbers on it, using Harrington's rule that there's always at least a 10% chance of bluffing.

First, given villain's stats, I think we can safely rule out JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AK. A PFR of 10, with only folds in front of him would certainly raise these hands.

AT is also very unlikely, given your hand. KT? Maybe, but a VPIP of 20 is fairly tight.

The preflop call would certainly make sense with a small pocket pair. I really am having trouble putting him on any other hand. Why?

(1) There's no flush draw out there to semi-bluff
(2) He could semi-bluff with the OESD, but then he would have had to call the PFR with something like 97 or Q9. PLUS, he lead the flop, got reraised, and then pushed.

For the above argument, I'm going to run the numbers assuming he has 88 (numbers for 44,TT are about the same). I'll include a 10% chance of a sheer bluff (say top pair only), and a 10% chance that he's holding a lower overpair (JJ,QQ,KK)

Total Bluff (just top pair,3straight)
Td 9c - 24% to win
As Ac - 76% to win

Vs. Lower Overpair
As Ac - 92%
Kd Kh - 8%

Vs. Set
As Ac - 9%
8c 8h - 92%

If you call and lose, you lose 4.92 more.
If you call and win, you net 28.37

so,
SET: (.92)(-4.92)+(.08)(28.37) = -2.25
KK: (.92)(28.37)+(.08)(-4.92) = +25.7
Bluff: (.76)(28.37) + (.24)(-4.92) = +20.38

overall,
.80(-2.25)+.10(25.7)+.10(20.38) = +2.8

So, this looks like a positive EV call, if you think there's at least a 10% chance he's on a total bluff, and a 10% chance he has just an overpair.

If you assume only the 10% chance of the overpair:
(.9)(-2.25)+(.1)(25.7) = .54

Still slightly +EV here.

Given that, I think a call is alright.

Your math is better than mine, z2, but we arrive at nearly the exact conclusion: it's a marginally +EV call anyway, even if villain holds dreaded set the vast majority of the time. To go this far and fold AA when you're getting 6:1 is a disaster.

[teamdonkey]

i fold this absolutely never. Don't underestimate people's ability to overplay their hands, you're shown A10 K10 Q10 J10 just as often as you are 1010 here.

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But still, do you like the fold?

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is not the question. The question is, wtf are you doing here:

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Flop: ($2.45) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, MP2 calls $13.92 (All-In), Hero folds.

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if you're going to fold to a push of $5 more?!?!

Don't pat yourself on the back for your all-star fold; take a look at how you ended up in such a bad spot.

P.S. raise more pf