Daily Hand Post : AQs in the SB

[DeathDonkey]

I think a turn CR would be sweet for meta-game purposes, but cost you a bet in this hand.

-DeathDonkey

[Paxosmotic]

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check the river to induce a bluff.

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ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Will

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A guy with a 31vpip opened from CO and has shown no aggression since we played back at him. Do we honestly think this guy has anything? He'll almost certainly fold to our bet on the river, why not check to and let him bet into us, a la the Amazingly Standard AQs play?

[chief444]

I'm thinking CO's most likely holdings here are a worse A or other overcard combinations such as KT-KQ, JT, QT, QJ, or even K8, Q8, etc depending on how much he attempts to steal. It seems likely that any pair would raise the flop with button still in. So you're probably way ahead here most of the time, way behind a smaller percentage of the time, and he may be drawing to more outs than I'm thinking a smaller percentage of the time. But it's not a very draw heavy board.

However, I still like a check/raise because he'll bet a worse ace and call down. Bet/3-bet is another option if he'll raise any Ace but I don't think he would, or at least he wouldn't always.

The other thing is, even if he is behind without an ace he will still bet the turn sometimes.

If you think he would just call the flop with T9-K9 or other possible pair +5 out combinations though then it seems betting becomes a better option because he's probably loose enough to call down to a bet but may check through the turn or may fold to a check/raise if he does bet. Basically, if he plays a little loose and fairly aggressive postflop I think check/raising is better. If he plays more than a little loose and passive postflop then I think betting is better. If he plays well postflop then I like to check/raise a decent amount on the turn anyway.

[Trix]

I bet and call down if raised.

check-call, bet may be better if you weren´t going to play more as it wont matter with your shania then, but normally I dont want to be in a spot here where I can´t have the A when I bet.

[goofball]

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this depends hugely on game conditions/opponent.

I almost always just keep the lead here. Preflop raisers who keep betting after no one has shown resistance are difficult to put on a hand.

I believe checking induces our villian to play correctly too. If he has a draw he'll take the free card, if he has a pair he might take the free card or he might bet planning on folding to a checkraise. If villian has a monster he'll just punish us either way but with a c/r it's villian's choice whether the turn get 3bet as opposed to our's.

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What draws do you expect him to have here?

If he's going to check and take a free card, he would have folded to our turn bet anyway. This is a very clear WA/WB situation.

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Or it's not. Villian can have any number of straight draws or straight/overcard draws. on a 964A board, (remember he opened from the CO). It's more like a way ahead/way ahead situation. We're behind about 6 hands here, and ahead of about 50. A good number of those 50 though (who are willing to put more money in the pot) are drawing to thiings like 4 or 5 outs. Let's not let catch one for free.

I thought I posted my line last night. I like a betcall bet line. Folding to the second river raise isn't really set in stone though.

[Bluffoon]

I think you are only going to lose a worse hand with a check raise. I bet the turn and bet the river again if called on the turn. I see almost any ace raising the turn and I want to see the showdown so I call a turn raise then check call the river if raised. This loses the least to better hand and lets the worse ace hang himself with his own rope.

[private joker]

I like a check-raise here. Any worse ace will bet, and then call down your raise (his loose stats indicate he has trouble folding when beaten, though you didn't provide any PF-A). Also, if it checks through, I don't think giving a free card is that dangerous, and it's more likely a river bet will be called because he may think his mid-PP could be good after the weak turn action. Bet this turn and you could lose hands that are drawing extremely thin.

If you get 3-bet after you checkraise, you can probably lay down -- since it will be AK or 2 pair (A9?) quite often, giving you 3 outs at best, dead to a set at worst. But I really doubt you're getting 3-bet. Check-raise and lead the river. You'll get 3 more BBs out of him.

If you bet the turn and get raised, you don't know where you are. Is he raising AT/AJ? or is he raising AK/A9? You can't securely 3-bet, so you have to call and check the river, which he may check behind for a free showdown, costing you money when he has AJ or smaller.

[Nate tha' Great]

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I like a check-raise here. Any worse ace will bet, and then call down your raise

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A worse ace will also raise a pretty high percentage of the time, making GoT the same amount, and potentially more if he wants to get frisky and 3-bet.

[gaming_mouse]

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A worse ace will also raise a pretty high percentage of the time,

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Without his postflop aggression factor, I don't know that we can count on this, especially since our PF 3-bet is pretty scary. This is even more true for a mediocre player who doesn't know that it means there's a good chance we have TT-KK.

In fact, based on this guys PF stats, he seems a little passive if anything. I'd say a worse A with those stats is only raising maybe 50% of the time. I could be way off though...

[private joker]

Well, I think the pertinent question is when our turn bet is raised, how often are we ahead vs. how often are we behind? I think that hands which bet when we check and just call our c/r are more often losers than the hands that raise our bet. Since we can fold to a 3-bet on the turn (at least I think so, it might be close), I think we lose the least when we're behind and gain the most when we're ahead.