Commerce 10-20, good laydown or too paranoid?

[Jeff2600]

This weekend, there was an interesting hand at my table, $10-$20 at Commerce.

Folds to MP, who raises to $100 ($1900 at start of hand), folds around to the small blind, who raises to $400 ($4000 at start of hand). Both players look like average solid players.

Flop is K 9 4 with two hearts. The small blind bets out $500. MP raises to $1000 (has $500 left). The small blinds thinks for a minute and says something like "you have to have pocket kings", and folds flashing AA. MP flashes 99.

When I saw this hand, I couldn't believe the AA folded. After he bet $500 on the flop, he was getting 2800:1000, almost 3:1 to put his opponent all in. But, after thinking about this hand for a long time, maybe AA made a great laydown. Since MP called the $300 raise preflop, I would put him on KK - TT. With the king on the flop, I would think that he would fold to the $500 bet with QQ - TT. It was possible that he wouldn't lay down QQ - TT, but the fact that he raised $500 instead of going all in looked like he may have flopped trips. Why else would he make that small raise? Does anyone think MP could have had AK? Would he have called that raise preflop with AK? Was this a great laydown or was AA being a little too paranoid? I would like to know what you guys think of this hand.

[bugstud]

I think the guy with aces is a fool for folding faceup

[Post-Oak]

I think this is a really bad fold.

He succeeded in getting over 1/5 of villain's stack into the pot preflop, and then folded to a non-threatening board. His $500 bet made the pot $1020. Villain raises $500 and only has $500 behind. How can he fold now?

The short stacked villain did not have correct odds to call for set value. He got lucky. There is not much hero can do about that. When villain raises, AK is still a possibility. I can't imagine folding here.

[phil_ivey_fan]

I think the guy w/ 99 is and idiot for calling the preflop reraise. Would be different if he had a deeper stack. But calling off 1/5 (*edited) of his stack w/ a hand that is either a coin flip or totally dominated (as was the case) is dumb.

Reminds me of my favorite quote: "I'll take luck over skill any day at the poker table".

[Post-Oak]

Yeah, what is with all the people showing their cards in these threads? Is this becoming common in brick and mortar play? People want to make big laydowns and advertise them to the world. Then they want to see if they were right or not.

The AA is a fool for showing. The 99 is a fool for showing. What are they thinking, that this a friendly game being played round a kitchen table?

[elnino12]

I put villian on KK as well, and would also make this laydown if I had a strong read, but that's because I play tight/cautious/aggressive. The raise on the flop screams set, and it's interesting that villian didn't just smooth-call here and try to extract more from hero knowing almost for sure that he has AA. I layed down AA twice the other day to KK when a K hit the board (both times I was correct, and both times I saved about $500). I agree that villian's preflop call is insane, but AA is NOT invincible post-flop, and if you have a strong read that you're beat, making a good laydown is always better than making a questionable call.

[turnipmonster]

I think against a very predictable player it's an ok fold, particularly live when he has a read. when a good player minraises like that with only 500 behind it should set off warning bells.

of course against a tricky, loose aggressive player who knows hero will lay down a lot he can't play that way, or he will get eaten alive making far too many incorrect laydowns.

the way this hand played out, it really begs the question of how exactly SB plans to show a profit playing AA this way against this opponent.
--turnipmonster

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that villian's preflop call is insane

[/ QUOTE ]

if opponent will lay down to a minraise any time there's paint on the board, I fail to see how villian's call is at all insane. he has very signifacant bluffing equity against someone who plays the way SB did.

--turnipmonster

[elnino12]

Sorry turnip, my understanding was that Hero raised $400 preflop, not that he raised the POT to $400. If it is in fact a minraise (so the pot is $400 after villian's call instead of $800 ), then the preflop call is obviously justified. I think the original post was slightly ambiguous, or I'm just illiterate.

[elnino12]

I just confused myself even more after re-reading our posts. I argued that villian's preflop call of $300 more was insane because he was most likely drawing to 2 outs, and was more than a 4:1 underdog heading to the flop. Then you threw me off with the preflop minraise talk, and now my head is about to explode. Was the raise to $400 a minraise or a flat raise?? I need a nap.