Prima 5/10 NL...mistake betting this river?

[whitelime]

10 Handed game on Prima. I have no reads on my opponents. There are two limpers to me. I have AcKc and raise it to $60. The BB calls (We both have about $1k) and the limpers fold. Two to the flop...It comes QcJc3c...I have the nut flush. BB checks, I bet $140, he calls. Turn is a 4d. He leads into me for $70, I raise it to $280, he calls. The river is the Qd. The board now reads QcJc3c4dQd. He checks it to me...we both have about $500 left. I move it to the center...He thinks for the longest times and calls and turns over 3d3h for the full house and takes it down.

Two questions...

1) What do you think about playing the nut flush fast?

My reasoning is that he wouldn't put me on the flush and most probably put me on something closer to AcAx or AcKx. Also a fourth club would surely kill my action.

2) What do you think about my bet on the river?

I feel that if he put me on something like AcAx or AcKx or even KcKx, he would probably make the call on the river with something like AxQx or KxQx.

[creedofhubris]

Why not push the turn? Or raise more than you did.

I think you have to check the river.

[whitelime]

What's your thought process behind raising more or shoving the turn? I'm not sure I see either alternative as being necessarily better than the other (raising to $280 vs shoving).

[radioheadfan]

I like the turn raise, and I like the fastplay on the flop. I check the river fearing QJ, JJ, and 33.

Your opponent's play was very strange....what did you put him on? Given you have the highest two clubs, he must be calling with at least AQ, but more likely top two or a set.

Check this river every time. And thank him next time for not putting you to a tough river decision. If the board didn't pair I think you'd have to fire a $200 or so value bet.

[Bet_to_Nguyen]

Check this river every time. And thank him next time for not putting you to a tough river decision. If the board didn't pair I think you'd have to fire a $200 or so value bet.

[Huskiez]

[ QUOTE ]
If the board didn't pair I think you'd have to fire a $200 or so value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope Hero would not check behind with the nuts.

[banditbdl]

That $70 dollar bet on the turn into a +$400 pot is mighty suspicious and unless this guy is really bad what can you be ahead of at the river that he'll call with? AQ or KQ it just seems that he would have made some sort of move on the flop or certainly a bigger bet on the turn.

[SpaceAce]

When your opponent leads into you on the turn and calls that big raise, you have to put him on something more than a pair. Given the way the hand played out, I think you need to check behind on the river.

SpaceAce

[creedofhubris]

Rationale for raising more: let's say the board pairs on river. However, instead of checking, opponent moves in. Do you call, or fold?

Tough choice if he has $500 to bet with.

No choice need be made if you're all-in.

If, by the river, all he has is $200 or so behind to bet, then there's no choice either, you call. You're pot-committed.

All-in is probably better, he might put you on one of the hands you mention instead of the nuts.

[wetfish]

I think the raise to $280 ( from $70 ) on the turn was a bit hmmmm....

my analysis of it ( easier not under pressure ) is that
<ul type="square"> [*]he's not likely to be drawing to anything as you have both top clubs[*]He's more likely to have trips ( QQ,JJ,33 ) than 2 pair QJ[*]Lower flush ? can't be discounted but not favourite[*]after his $70 bet there is now circa $490 in the pot[*]if he has trips the odds of housing on the river is 23%[*]he has $700 left[*]A club on the river (circa 18%) kills any action from trips[/list]
given all that I would try and get him to make a bad odds call with trips ( or a lower flush ) on the turn. araise of $200 gives him 4/1 on the pot which gives him +EV for a house and thats not even counting the implied odds of his remaining $500.
A raise to $570 gives him -EV and more or less forces him to push his last $200 making his EV even worse, or fold. Such a strong force out bet quite often has the equity of making an oppenent read you for a weaker hand such as AA in this situation.


I really don't like giving someone decent odds to a sizeable pot after the action indicates he has real strength. Try and get them to make a mistake in this situation is my philosophy. As it happens he may well have bitten the hook and called/raise his last $200 and you'd have still lost but you'd be the winner overall as this scenario crops up time after time and getting all the money in with 77% against 23% pays bigtime.


River bet ? not from me