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#1
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River play, heads up, OOP
This isn't a super exciting hand but I'll bet it's a spot we find ourselves in quite a bit, and I thought it might be good to get the wheels turning a little bit.
UTG is a decent player, but he plays too tightly and doesn't raise enough before the flop, especially in a shorthanded game. (I hate putting up stats but he's about a 15/8 guy, ~30% WTSD, 200 hands or so. He seems very agressive after the flop, however.) The scene: Online, 6-handed. UTG raises, everyone folds, I 3-bet J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] from the BB, UTG calls. Heads up, 6 small bets. Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I bet, UTG calls. Heads up, 4 big bets. Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I bet, UTG calls. Heads up, 6 big bets. River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] What's my best play on the river? |
#2
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Re: River play, heads up, OOP
I think you bet. A high and smaller pairs will call you more times than he has a Q. But is this guy aggressive enough to bet more than those when checked to? I'm still leaning towards a bet. I don't think he raises the river often enough with something that doesn't beat Qx, so we can fold to a raise.
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#3
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Re: River play, heads up, OOP
I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop.
In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often. |
#4
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Re: River play, heads up, OOP
[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop. In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often. [/ QUOTE ] this is a very easy check/call then. |
#5
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Re: River play, heads up, OOP
[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop. In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often. [/ QUOTE ] You gotta tells us this stuff in the OP, b/c what it really comes down to what you mean by aggressive post flop: does he bluff raise? Is he going to bet JJ or AK when checked to, etc. |
#6
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Re: River play, heads up, OOP
[ QUOTE ]
You gotta tells us this stuff in the OP, b/c what it really comes down to what you mean by aggressive post flop: does he bluff raise? Is he going to bet JJ or AK when checked to, etc. [/ QUOTE ] Let's not be unreasonable. If we knew the answer to all of those questions then there's nothing to think about. |
#7
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Re: River play, heads up, OOP
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop. In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often. [/ QUOTE ] You gotta tells us this stuff in the OP, b/c what it really comes down to what you mean by aggressive post flop: does he bluff raise? Is he going to bet JJ or AK when checked to, etc. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not too worried about a bluff-raise, but I guess it's always a possibility. Mostly I think he just value bets a lot. Sorry for the confusion. |
#8
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Re: River play, heads up, OOP
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm fairly confident he would bet the river with any pair he deemed good enough to raise with pre-flop. In other words, I would expect him to bet JJ-88 a vast majority of the time, and AK much of the time as well, though not as often. [/ QUOTE ] You gotta tells us this stuff in the OP, b/c what it really comes down to what you mean by aggressive post flop: does he bluff raise? Is he going to bet JJ or AK when checked to, etc. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not too worried about a bluff-raise, but I guess it's always a possibility. Mostly I think he just value bets a lot. Sorry for the confusion. [/ QUOTE ] No problem at all, wasn't trying to be a jerk. But if you think he's value betting hands you beat a lot then it really changes things a lot, and I just check/call. |
#9
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Re: River play, heads up, OOP
[ QUOTE ]
I think you bet. A high and smaller pairs will call you more times than he has a Q. But is this guy aggressive enough to bet more than those when checked to? [/ QUOTE ] I wonder the same thing. An aggressive player will probably conclude that we're trying to induce a bluff unless we've been getting sexy on the river a lot, but does that prevent him from betting his PPs? He's likely to be thinking that: 1) we want to see a showdown after we check since we probably bet most of the hands we're content to fold hoping we'll push him off a better no-pair hand. 2) we might be giving up I agree with Miles that it's better to bet if he shows passive tendencies. I think this decision is closer. |
#10
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Re: River play, heads up, OOP
if you check, he may not bet 99/TT/AK, but if you bet he will call with them - maybe not AK, but you get the point.
i really don't like check calling against guys who are prone to be passive (edit: missed the "very aggressive" part - it doesn't change my mind. i'd need you to tell me you've seen him bet very poor hands when checked to). if he's been slowplaying AA/KK/QQ and he plans to raise the river, i am folding anyway. if i check and call, i still think he doesn't bet some hands that he would call with. i always want one bet to go in here, and i'd rather bet and have him call than check and have him bet. |
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