Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Eleven

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Sorry these are late. Busy, busy week.

Week eleven brings us some very one-sided matchups. Eight of the matchups this week are favored by a touchdown or more, and five of those are ten or more point favorites. Many of these big-spread matchups are serious public opinion favorites as well. So this week presents a large challenge to find positive expected value, but for systems which favor underdogs its a pretty decent week. With a lot of the large spreads, I feel this is a good week for six-point teasers as well, as you can cross some pretty serious divides by moving some of those +7 lines across +10 to +13, and moving +10 lines across +14 to +16. There's also a lot of value in shrinking the distance between some of these large spreads

Last week: 2-3 with a win on Game of the Week. +3.65 units for the week.
Results: 26-22 for the year (54.16%). 7-3 on game of the week (70%)

This week, recommending a standard 5-3-2-1 graduated play. As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog, but please lineshop aggressively

Seattle -13 at San Francisco
On November 7th last year, Seattle rolled in to San Fran as a seven point favorite and came home a 14 point winner. This was after beating San Fran 34-0 at home earlier in the year. This year's Seattle team is better than last, this year's 49ers are worse - Seattle is the top-ranked offense, San Fran is the lowest-ranked defense. . As long as this line is under 14, this has value. San Fran has averaged a meager 42.4 passing yards and zero TDs in the five games since QB Tim Rattay was benched / traded. San Fran hasn't scored in the last three games. San Fran QB Ken Dorsey will get his second start of the season ( fourth SF change at quarterback in the last six games), and will have rookie OL Adam Spencer replacing LT Anthony Clement protecting Dorsey's blind side. Seattle ranks second in the league with 30 sacks, so look for Dorsey to spend most of the day on his back. Seattle will roll eight in the box to stuff the run, and to pressure the QB. This one is going to be ugly. Seattle is 5-2 ATS in their past seven vs San Fran, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall. San Fran is 3-7 ATS in their last ten home games. 34-14 Seattle, game of the week as long as its under 14.

Detroit +7.5 at Dallas
Three of five Detroit losses have been by six points or less. The Cowboys have had seven of nine games this year decided by a touchdown or less (only the early-season blowout of Philly and the win two week ago against Arizona were decided by more than seven). Dallas is going to win this game, but Detroit has a very good shot to cover the 7.5. That extra half point is critical to the +EV of this game, as I predict this game is going to land on Dallas +7 quite often. Dallas is in potential let-down mode after the Philly win - I don't think they suffer an outright loss, but I don't expect they come out firing, they'll do just enough to win this game but not by more than a touch. Julius Jones is playing, but is not 100% - look for Dallas to try to build an early lead and then run out the clock. The Lions are decent at stopping the run anyways, with big beefy Shaun Rogers and Dan Wilkinson as DTs. Look for Dallas to try to run outside, something they were not able to do with any success last week in Philly. Dallas is also a 60% public favorite according to Wagerline. Note that this line is creeping up - its available at +8 already in some places and may climb higher closer to gametime. 24-21 Dallas for the Detroit cover.

Chicago +3 vs Carolina
Look past the hype and the past few games, where Carolina has outscored their last three opponents by a combined 102-30. This is the Carolina team that only beat the Packers 32-29 at home and only beat the Lions 21-20 at Detroit. Look familar? Yep - both NFC North teams... and now the Panthers head to a third NFC North matchup, where all of Chicago is up for this game. LB Brian Urlacher called this the biggest game he's played in since 2001. Chicago is out to prove that they are playoff contenders and can beat (or at least play with) someone with a winning record. This game is split 77%-23% in favor of Carolina in public opinion according to Wagerline - not to mention 6/6 USA today experts have Carolina - so this is a huge public opinion play. Carolina is a pass-heavy team, their RB Steven Davis is only averaging 3yd/carry. Chicago's stout defense (#1 overall, #8 vs the run, #3 vs the pass) is going to be able to play pass-heavy defense, counting on the intersection of their run D + the poor Carolina run game to allow them to continually drop four and five back in coverage. You're also going to see heavy winds in Chicago again this weekend (but not nearly as heavy as last weekend), which is going to play havoc with both team's passing games - there's already a high-wind advisory for Saturday, which is likely to carry over to Sunday. As Chicago proved last weekend, they're much better suited to playing in those winds, and ultimately they're going to win this game. Its also worth mentioning that Carolina is 1-5 over the last 11 years when temperature at kickoff is 32-degrees or below. Forcast for Sunday? 32-degrees on the nose, likely colder with wind chill. Both of these teams are pretty identical, both strong physical teams with very strong defenses and a one-dimensional offense. however, in the battle between a run-only offense and a pass-only offense, especially in unfavorable weather conditions, the run-heavy offense wins out. Thomas Jones practiced Wednesday and Thursday this week, and will be "healthier than I've been in a month" according to Jones. Chicago also returns its offensive line to full strength as right tackle Fred Miller (highly publicized broken jaw from a fight with center Kreutz) was upgraded to probable after practicing Thursday, and left guard Ruben Brown (chest) was removed from the injury report entirely this week. If Miller can't play, John St. Clair would start his second straight game at right tackle - and he put up a great showing last week against 49ers standout Bryant Young. Carolina gets one to Steve Smith and a 1-yard TD on the ground for Davis, but Muhsin scores once through the air, Jones on the ground, and Gould drops in a field-goal for the 17-14 win. Believe it or not, this is almost the game of the week. .

Atlanta -6 vs Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. In the same stretch, Atlanta is 5-2-1 ATS in their last seven at home. The Falcons lost to Green Bay at home and are going to want to come back and make a statement. This is an important game for two teams both who are fighting for a playoff spot. 21-13 Atlanta. more on this game later, hopefully - not a lot of time today.

Tease of the Week: Seattle -6.5, San Diego -4
This is a 5/6 teaser, normally something I stay away from because of the -120 line. However, there is enough EV in crossing the seven on the Seattle line to make this play worth it, unless you can find the line at -12.5 still instead of -13. This tease should come in enough to make it worth a three unit play at -120. The Bills porous rush defense + a rested L.T. means a big day for San Diego on the ground, but there's too much of a probability of this game being decided by a touchdown (with the clock being ground down by the ground game) to make this a valuable play at -10. Likewise Seattle brings a potent rushing attack to San Fransico, where the offense is struggling greatly (full analysis above). While I feel this is a very strong play at a two-touchdown spread, its a majorly strong play inside a touchdown. Teasing these two down is the "free money" teaser of the week.

As usual all picks archived on my blog, performify.com

Like the weekly posting Jedi but I am going to take issue with one piece of your Seahawks/49ers analysis. The Niners have allowed a stingy 88 yds/game on the ground at home. 4 of the 5 runners they've faced are quite good when healthy: Steven Jackson, Julius Jones, Edgerrin James and Tiki Barber. I think this game is going to see far less scoring than you expect, making it difficult for Seattle to cover your target number of 13.5-.

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Thanks for the feedback sygamel.

San Fran has indeed managed to limit some teams on the ground if you're just looking at the numbers, but I believe thats more a function similar to the Chiefs looking stronger on rush defense than they really are - teams are have been able to pass at will on San Fran (much like against KC).

For example, San Fran did manage to hold the Rams to 80 yards on the ground but gave up 360+ yards through the air that game. Not to mention that San Fran was up on the Rams 21-6 in the first half, so the Rams were playing from behind to make up that gap thus the pass-heavy second half.

In the Dallas game @ San Fran, Dallas threw for 363 yards and while Jones was held to 85 yards he also scored twice.

in the San Fran / Philly game (admitedly at Philly) the run-heavy Philly offense put up 130 rushing yards from Westbrook and Gordon.

I think the closest parallel will be the early game of Indy @ San Fran. Edge ended with 105 and a touch, and the only reason you didn't see more out of that game was that Peyton tossed three touchdowns: Indy was up two touches at halftime, three touchdowns in the third quarter, and a four touchdown lead. I think Seattle's offense is obviously more potent than Indy's this year, and has a solid defense to match to the terrible San Fran offense.

More tomorrow - heading out [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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I think the closest parallel will be the early game of Indy @ San Fran. Edge ended with 105 and a touch, and the only reason you didn't see more out of that game was that Peyton tossed three touchdowns: Indy was up two touches at halftime, three touchdowns in the third quarter, and a four touchdown lead. I think Seattle's offense is obviously more potent than Indy's this year, and has a solid defense to match to the terrible San Fran offense.

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I disagree with most of this. Note also that Alex Smith threw 4 picks, one of which was returned for a TD, and lost a fumble in the Indy 28-3 game.

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Adding three units on Chicago at +3.5 making that a five unit play, equivilant to a game of the week.

Also adding two more units on Detroit +8 -105.

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Here's a five team, 4/1 teaser that has a lot of value:


Chicago Bears +10
St. Louis Rams -2½
Detroit Lions +14½
Seattle Seahawks -6½
San Diego Chargers -6½

Moves Chicago across +7 and to a push on +10, moves Detroit across +10 and +14, moves St.Louis across -7 and -3, moves Seattle and San Diego across -10 and -7.