Daily Hand Post : AQs in the SB

[Paxosmotic]

CO could open with a huge range of hands here and might see our 3-bet as a resteal. I see no reason to give up the lead on this hand yet. Bet here and check the river to induce a bluff. If raised here you can safely call down, I believe.

[WillMagic]

[ QUOTE ]
check the river to induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Will

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
check the river to induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Will

[/ QUOTE ]
A guy with a 31vpip opened from CO and has shown no aggression since we played back at him. Do we honestly think this guy has anything? He'll almost certainly fold to our bet on the river, why not check to and let him bet into us, a la the Amazingly Standard AQs play?

[WillMagic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
check the river to induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Will

[/ QUOTE ]
A guy with a 31vpip opened from CO and has shown no aggression since we played back at him. Do we honestly think this guy has anything?

He'll almost certainly fold to our bet on the river, why not check to and let him bet into us, a la the Amazingly Standard AQs play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he will call with more hands than he will bet if we check. Villain is 31/8.5, which means he is not a maniac - he is slightly loose/passive.

Against loose passives, value betting is the shiznizzle and inducing bluffs is not the shiznizzle.

You seriously need to reevaluate your river play. I guarantee that you do not value bet nearly enough, and that it is costing you a significant amount of money at whatever limit you are playing.

Will

[DeathDonkey]

I think a turn CR would be sweet for meta-game purposes, but cost you a bet in this hand.

-DeathDonkey

[chief444]

I'm thinking CO's most likely holdings here are a worse A or other overcard combinations such as KT-KQ, JT, QT, QJ, or even K8, Q8, etc depending on how much he attempts to steal. It seems likely that any pair would raise the flop with button still in. So you're probably way ahead here most of the time, way behind a smaller percentage of the time, and he may be drawing to more outs than I'm thinking a smaller percentage of the time. But it's not a very draw heavy board.

However, I still like a check/raise because he'll bet a worse ace and call down. Bet/3-bet is another option if he'll raise any Ace but I don't think he would, or at least he wouldn't always.

The other thing is, even if he is behind without an ace he will still bet the turn sometimes.

If you think he would just call the flop with T9-K9 or other possible pair +5 out combinations though then it seems betting becomes a better option because he's probably loose enough to call down to a bet but may check through the turn or may fold to a check/raise if he does bet. Basically, if he plays a little loose and fairly aggressive postflop I think check/raising is better. If he plays more than a little loose and passive postflop then I think betting is better. If he plays well postflop then I like to check/raise a decent amount on the turn anyway.

[Trix]

I bet and call down if raised.

check-call, bet may be better if you weren´t going to play more as it wont matter with your shania then, but normally I dont want to be in a spot here where I can´t have the A when I bet.

[Bluffoon]

I think you are only going to lose a worse hand with a check raise. I bet the turn and bet the river again if called on the turn. I see almost any ace raising the turn and I want to see the showdown so I call a turn raise then check call the river if raised. This loses the least to better hand and lets the worse ace hang himself with his own rope.

[private joker]

I like a check-raise here. Any worse ace will bet, and then call down your raise (his loose stats indicate he has trouble folding when beaten, though you didn't provide any PF-A). Also, if it checks through, I don't think giving a free card is that dangerous, and it's more likely a river bet will be called because he may think his mid-PP could be good after the weak turn action. Bet this turn and you could lose hands that are drawing extremely thin.

If you get 3-bet after you checkraise, you can probably lay down -- since it will be AK or 2 pair (A9?) quite often, giving you 3 outs at best, dead to a set at worst. But I really doubt you're getting 3-bet. Check-raise and lead the river. You'll get 3 more BBs out of him.

If you bet the turn and get raised, you don't know where you are. Is he raising AT/AJ? or is he raising AK/A9? You can't securely 3-bet, so you have to call and check the river, which he may check behind for a free showdown, costing you money when he has AJ or smaller.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a check-raise here. Any worse ace will bet, and then call down your raise

[/ QUOTE ]

A worse ace will also raise a pretty high percentage of the time, making GoT the same amount, and potentially more if he wants to get frisky and 3-bet.