When a flush runs into a double paired river oop (3/6)

ClaytonN · #1 12-04-2005, 04:13 PM

New table, no reads.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO calls.

River: (8.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

#2 12-04-2005, 04:16 PM

i'd check/call, that's an awful situation though.

imported_leader · #3 12-04-2005, 04:18 PM

CR the flop. He won't believe you. I'd check/call the river. He'll bet a PP or busted Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] enough.

POKhER · #4 12-04-2005, 04:27 PM

LOL, Oh man that blows haha.

Reminds me when SSH says "you pretty sure he now has a full house beating your flush but no read in more than 90% so you must call" [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Or something close to that... Dam i could pull chicks with my Small Stakes Hold'em Quotes im sure [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

#5 12-04-2005, 05:10 PM

I'd actually consider betting. Why are we so convinced that we're toast to villain's K? Villain made two virtually automatic bets on the flop and turn, and then slows up at the first sign of hero's aggression. A lot of players would re-raise with a strong K here, and the only K in most players' 3-betting range is a strong K.

I think we're ahead most of the time here, but how often do we expect a call? Obviously if we're beaten, we lose 2 BBs, and if we don't get called, we win 0, and if we're ahead and get called, we win 1 BB. So it all hinges on the probabilities . . . is a 75% chance we're ahead and a 75% chance we get called too generous? Because that would be +EV. I suppose the river bet is marginal.

At the very least, let me say that there is absolutely no question that I'm check/calling this river, if I'm not betting. The decision between the two would be based on reads.

#6 12-04-2005, 05:35 PM

check/call, bitch & moan

yellowjack · #7 12-04-2005, 05:50 PM

I like bet/folding a lot more than check/calling. I'm very surprised so many people are recommending check/calling [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

He's virtually never raising unless you're beat, but you may be able to extract a bet from him calling with AA, QQ, JJ, TT.

istewart · #8 12-04-2005, 07:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like bet/folding a lot more than check/calling. I'm very surprised so many people are recommending check/calling [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

He's virtually never raising unless you're beat, but you may be able to extract a bet from him calling with AA, QQ, JJ, TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you.

rhizome · #9 12-04-2005, 07:30 PM

Without reads there is no reason to try to be cute. Just bet the flop. If re-raised, then opponent probably has a K or better and you should go for c/r on turn.

POKhER · #10 12-04-2005, 07:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like bet/folding a lot more than check/calling. I'm very surprised so many people are recommending check/calling [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

He's virtually never raising unless you're beat, but you may be able to extract a bet from him calling with AA, QQ, JJ, TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

But, what if he has AA?

He may bet when we check with AA, But he may fold if we bet.

So if he has AA, we bet he folds.(Neutral)
We check he bets/Checks. (Win 1BB)

If he had King, We bet he raises/calls (We lose 1BB)
We check he bets we call (we lose 1BB)

I'm sure i've missed something though lol.

isnt it best to C/C? for the bluffing chance ? Super marginal?