Sanity check

Nietzsche · #1 11-18-2005, 08:58 AM

UTG is 25/18/2. He hasn't been at the table for that long and I have no postflop read on him.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.20 BB

All streets look OK?

MrBig30 · #2 11-18-2005, 09:09 AM

Looks ok. Sometimes if I think someone is likely to bluffbet if checked to (or likely to bluffraise if bet into) I just check/call turn and river UI but without a read I like your line.

#3 11-18-2005, 09:15 AM

I think its a clear fold eventhough its highly likely a semibluff or he had a made hand on the flop which you can draw to.

spydog · #4 11-18-2005, 09:47 AM

I check-call the turn/river.

He raised preflop but didn't cap. So, his most likely holding is unpaired broadway cards. He would have capped AK, so you are ahead of the majority of his possible holdings on the turn. There is a good possibility that he is sitting dominated with only 3 outs. Yes, sometimes he has the lone flush card or even a made flush. However, even with a lone flush card he will often make a money-losing semi-bluff on the turn. All of this adds up to a show-downable hand that benefits little by betting the turn because he will likely fold any unpaired overcards that don't contain a club. And remember, he will bet most of those unpaired overcards that contain a club.

The bottom line is that you must get to showdown with this hand.

brazilio · #5 11-18-2005, 09:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I check-call the turn/river.

[/ QUOTE ]

ArturiusX · #6 11-18-2005, 10:15 AM

Against trickier opponents, try check-call the turn.

#7 11-18-2005, 10:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I check-call the turn/river.

He raised preflop but didn't cap. So, his most likely holding is unpaired broadway cards. He would have capped AK, so you are ahead of the majority of his possible holdings on the turn. There is a good possibility that he is sitting dominated with only 3 outs. Yes, sometimes he has the lone flush card or even a made flush. However, even with a lone flush card he will often make a money-losing semi-bluff on the turn. All of this adds up to a show-downable hand that benefits little by betting the turn because he will likely fold any unpaired overcards that don't contain a club. And remember, he will bet most of those unpaired overcards that contain a club.

The bottom line is that you must get to showdown with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
why cant he have a pair?

Nietzsche · #8 11-18-2005, 11:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I check-call the turn/river.

He raised preflop but didn't cap. So, his most likely holding is unpaired broadway cards. He would have capped AK, so you are ahead of the majority of his possible holdings on the turn. There is a good possibility that he is sitting dominated with only 3 outs. Yes, sometimes he has the lone flush card or even a made flush. However, even with a lone flush card he will often make a money-losing semi-bluff on the turn. All of this adds up to a show-downable hand that benefits little by betting the turn because he will likely fold any unpaired overcards that don't contain a club. And remember, he will bet most of those unpaired overcards that contain a club.

The bottom line is that you must get to showdown with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
When he 3-bets his most likely holdings is big broadways but that changes IMO when he raises the turn. Most players at 5/10 don't raise those for a free showdown. I think this is an overpair, a set, an 8 or a flush the majority of the time. Some of the time it will a high lone club. I think the real question is how often and I have trouble quantifying that. Anybody want a take a shot at an estimate?

spydog · #9 11-18-2005, 01:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I check-call the turn/river.

He raised preflop but didn't cap. So, his most likely holding is unpaired broadway cards. He would have capped AK, so you are ahead of the majority of his possible holdings on the turn. There is a good possibility that he is sitting dominated with only 3 outs. Yes, sometimes he has the lone flush card or even a made flush. However, even with a lone flush card he will often make a money-losing semi-bluff on the turn. All of this adds up to a show-downable hand that benefits little by betting the turn because he will likely fold any unpaired overcards that don't contain a club. And remember, he will bet most of those unpaired overcards that contain a club.

The bottom line is that you must get to showdown with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
When he 3-bets his most likely holdings is big broadways but that changes IMO when he raises the turn. Most players at 5/10 don't raise those for a free showdown. I think this is an overpair, a set, an 8 or a flush the majority of the time. Some of the time it will a high lone club. I think the real question is how often and I have trouble quantifying that. Anybody want a take a shot at an estimate?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not questioning your turn fold. I just think it was bad to lead this turn. Check-call, check-call costs only 1 more BB than bet-fold. The benefits are numerous. You always get to see a showdown. You allow yourself to catch up if you are behind a non-set pocket pair. Plus, you will snap off a bazillion bluffs from hands that are drawing to 3 or 12 outs. Meanwhile, betting this turn probably folds every worse hand, except flush draws, which are likely to stab at the turn or river.