NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 12/10

[NoChance]

Year To Date: 2-1

For 12/10:

(19) Alabama
Temple -4

Take Temple if you follow this trend.
Preview

It's unusal to already have four games this early in the season. They usually don't get going until conference play starts in January. Hopefully it's a sign that there is more parity this year which means more upsets and more opportunities. It's also nice to see teams from smaller conferences doing well.

I've placed my wager already. Line opened at -3.5. Alabama has lost to two ranked teams but has looked bad in all it's games. First road game for them. As the Preview states, they will probably fall out of the rankings but we still have value right now because that little number still sits beside their name until Monday.

Good Luck

[CieloAzor]

Hmm. I was planning to wait just because 4 points is pretty substantial. I figure squares can't lay off a ranked team getting 4. Surely the number can't climb any higher, can it?

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Hmm. I was planning to wait just because 4 points is pretty substantial. I figure squares can't lay off a ranked team getting 4. Surely the number can't climb any higher, can it?

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That's a very good point. In the past, has it been better to jump on the line right when it comes out? Or does it usually steam in the direction of the ranked team, making it better to wait?

[NoChance]

Unless there is a special circumstance, I use the following guidelines:

If the ranked team is ranked 1 to 10, I wait. The public will bet it down.

If the team is ranked 16-25, I bet it early. The sharps tend to outweigh the public. As I stated in other threads, I firmly believe I have a couple points of value the minute the line is set. Therefore I bet it when it comes out.

For teams ranked 11-15, use your best judgement. It could go either way. Try to make a guess at public perception.

Now, this is just a guideline so it may not always be correct but I think the logic makes sense. I can see this one getting to -5.5 or so (just a guess) because Alabama has underperformed thus far. Again, I could be wrong. If only we knew...

[CieloAzor]

Yeah, the odds are slowly shifting the wrong way at Pinny. I settled for -4 (-110) elsewhere.

[kyro]

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Yeah, the odds are slowly shifting the wrong way at Pinny. I settled for -4 (-110) elsewhere.

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I just got it at -4 (-111) at Pinny.

[MyTurn2Raise]

I likey again
got the same pinny line

[20Five]

Same thing, got -109 though.. good luck guys, lets keep it rolling [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Easy E]

I need to check these out earlier in the day. Nice job so far.

Notha winna [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]