Mr Baseball's NCAA Hoops primer

[mrbaseball]

You can agree or disagree. I have nothing statistical to back up my views other than a solid track record which I can't prove. I post this more to stimulate discussion and ideas and I hope to get some useful feedback.

These are my feelings about how to bet hoops. I NEVER try to do any handicapping or analysis and primarily go with a fade the public strategy and stick with mostly doggies.

1. Getting points is very very good in most cases. Hoops is probably the most upset laden sport of them all and no one really can analyze teams like Eastern Illinois (big winner ats last night!) or Austin Peay or George Mason with any kind of reliability. The Dukes and Illinois' and Villanovas of the world will always be overated in the lines.

2. Getting points at a neutral site is even better.

3. Getting point at home is better yet.

4. These are mostly 18 and 19 year olds. Most of them are very talented and most of them will never make the pro's. This is what breeds the ANYTHING can happen nature making upsets more likely.

5. Point shaving. I'm not saying it happens a lot. I am however saying it happens. The ease of online gambling makes this easy and very very probable. See point 4 above. I would guess 1 to 2 % of all games involve shaving meaning that points are even better. Many think I am a crackpot for this stance while others agree. I just think it's too easy and lucrative that it's gotta happen somewhere, sometime and that 1 or 2 out of 100 games involve shaving.

6. Fade the public! This is almost always true in almost every sport. Since there are a lot of obscure and thinly bet hoops games there are lots of opportunities. The public just LOVES the favs and if you have been paying attention up to now we know getting points is very good. I use the bigguy consensus as my primary fading vehicle and then add common sense.

7. Tournament time. Bet every dog. Takes every point in the first round. The neutral court combined with pressure on the favs and the loosness of the no chancers means nice winners year in and year out. The public can't wait to load up on the overhyped favorites.

8. Fade the hype.

Summary: Getting points is good, fading the hype and public is good because anything can and does happen in hoops. Nobody knows and when you least expect it some kid from Podunk U gets on fire and nails 6 straight 3's. You wanna be on Podunk U especially at home! Upsets happen with more frquency in hoops than any other sport making it EZ money!

[Page Jacobson]

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I use the bigguy consensus as my primary fading vehicle and then add common sense.

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I'm not sure what you mean here. Is there a site where you can get this information?

You make some interesting points, I think it would be smart to track your theories.

[mrbaseball]

Link to Bigguy consensus

Bigguy is an online monitoring service and fake sportsbook. Going aganst the consensus picks of the wannabees that post there is usually golden and especially so in hoops.

[NoChance]

When he says bigguy, he means www.bigguy.com. That is where many "experts" post their picks so they can be tracked and have proof that their win/loss record is real.

Thanks for the writeup Mr. B. Will you be posting your picks this season so we can follow along?

[MyTurn2Raise]

glad to see this...I've only been around for your excellent baseball picks. Nice to see there is another sport where I can ride your coattails.