Matusows AJ vs flush draw

[swarm]

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4k-8k blinds, don't know stack sizes

Matusow opens UTG+1 for 21k with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and BB calls with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Flop J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Check, Matusow bets 30k, BB c/rs to 80k, Matusow reraises to 190k, BB calls.

Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Check, Matusow checks behind.

River 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB bets 165k and Matusow calls.

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Thanks, but the screenshot says the pot on the turn is 765K, which appears to disagree with the bets you state above.

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It does?
Both put in 21k on the flop plust the 4k small blind=46k

Both put 190k in aon the flop = 426k

Both put 165k in on the river = 756k (seems about right to me)

[Vee Quiva]

When I watched it the first two times, I just assumed Matasow put him on the flush draw and was trying to induce a bluff. I hadn't thought about Mike putting him on a set.

I guess that's why I play in the kiddie game.

It would have been real interesting if the guy would have lead out on the turn. Then we could have seen how good Mike's hand reading skills were.

[Rduke55]

It did look like Mike was at least somewhat concerned about a set/turned FH. He did jsut call on the river.

[gobboboy]

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It did look like Mike was at least somewhat concerned about a set/turned FH. He did jsut call on the river.

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He just called because if his opponent had him beat he was going to reraise him and if he didn't have him beat then he was folding to a raise. There's negative value in raising the river bet.

[slickpoppa]

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4k-8k blinds, don't know stack sizes

Matusow opens UTG+1 for 21k with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and BB calls with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Flop J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Check, Matusow bets 30k, BB c/rs to 80k, Matusow reraises to 190k, BB calls.

Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Check, Matusow checks behind.

River 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB bets 165k and Matusow calls.

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Thanks, but the screenshot says the pot on the turn is 765K, which appears to disagree with the bets you state above.

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It does?
Both put in 21k on the flop plust the 4k small blind=46k

Both put 190k in aon the flop = 426k

Both put 165k in on the river = 756k (seems about right to me)

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Yeah you're right. I was mistaken. I thought the screenshot was from the turn

[NLfool]

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It did look like Mike was at least somewhat concerned about a set/turned FH. He did jsut call on the river.

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He just called because if his opponent had him beat he was going to reraise him and if he didn't have him beat then he was folding to a raise. There's negative value in raising the river bet.

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agreed but uh well there is no way someone can fold J9,JT, JQ, JK for a minraise on the river. Problem is if you factor in all the scenarios, flush draw, set, or guy holding the case J. All other possibilities outweigh you trying to get value from the case J, so you forgo the value here, and err on the side of caution

[jomatty]

to me he looked a little sick at the river and completely uncomforatable with his hand. his play has been sick good from what ive seen and he had been playing some serious poker. i think he was a little lost in the hand and with so much on the line thats not a good feeling. after the showdown he looked genuinely genuinely relieved and my guess is he though it was fairly likely he was trapped against a set but with the odds stack sizes etc he wasnt about to fold (which i dont think he really considered)
matty

[Rduke55]

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It did look like Mike was at least somewhat concerned about a set/turned FH. He did jsut call on the river.

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He just called because if his opponent had him beat he was going to reraise him and if he didn't have him beat then he was folding to a raise. There's negative value in raising the river bet.

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Isn't that what I was saying? A weaker J or maybe an overpair (which could have been what the other guy had, considering the flop raise) would call a reasonable raise here. A min. raise even.

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i'm pretty sure Mike's 3rd J came on the river

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Wait, what are you talking about, Matusow picked up running jacks vs. an inside straight draw on the flop, and Lane's picked up flush draw on the turn [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]