I have a full house! Big deal?

[piggity]

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He needs to make villain fold hands with 6 outs, like KQ KJ KT etc.

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Don't think he's folding KQ..

[ggbman]

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He needs to make villain fold hands with 6 outs, like KQ KJ KT etc. This is the reason he must raise the turn here.

He would also like to get an extra bet from AK/AJ/Ax, which will very possibly call down, but may check the river unimproved.

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This is incorrect, there are already 8BB in the pot after the raise, so villian has odds to chase overs, and hero gets 3 bet by better hands and has a tough decision. I like calling down after the turn, i really see very little in raising.

[etizzle]

Villain is *barely* getting odds to chase overs, but will quite possibly throw away hands like KJ or JT to a turn raise here.

Hero clearly gains if this happens.

And again, hero needs to make an extra bet from Ax when he is ahead. The first turn raise is clearly correct, as he is a ahead a significant majority of the time.

After the 3 bet I call it down without more of a read then that he is a good player.

[Senor Choppy]

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You suggesting this because he didn't cap preflop? Remember the opponent here is a strong, winning player, who is capable of sacrificing a small bet preflop HU if he thinks he can make it back later.

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Is he capable? Sure. Do people play their hands this way more than 5% of the time? No.

If the villain was going to mix up his play, he would've limp-reraised with a big pair. The only way he's got something bigger than 99 is if he has TT or JJ and he plays like a girl.