5-10, Difficult Turn Decision?

morello · #1 04-01-2005, 01:58 AM

UTG+1 has reasonable stats (22 vpip). I haven't noticed him much in the hands we've played together, so he hasn't gotten noticeably out of line yet. In general, I think he's probably a decent player for this game.

I'm still not sure what the best play is here. I have an inclination but I'd like to hear what you all think. So, thoughts/comments/groupie love appreciated.

I have ~1400 at the start of the hand, and he has me covered.

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $10, MP1 raises to $40, 1 fold, CO calls $40, Hero calls $40, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $30.

Flop: ($175) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $100, CO folds, Hero raises to $350, UTG+1 calls $350, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($975) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks

muzungu · #2 04-01-2005, 02:45 PM

Heh, never fails, everyone responds to the gossipy threads and ignores the interesting hands... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
In general, I think he's probably a decent player for this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gosh, I don't know where to begin here. What is a decent player calling with for 1/4 of the effective stack size?

Looks like either:

1. a combination draw- JT [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], maybe AT/KT [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]:

or

2. a smaller set planning to commit on a safe turn.

...both of which fit his preflop action.

Anything else? Seems like he would bail on anything smaller facing a bet and a raise and being out of position. 89, maybe. T7 seems unlikely given the preflop/flop play, and JTo/77/etc seem like too small of draws to play here.

In any event, this seems like a clear check. Other than 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8x, there aren't likely hands where he has one (and only one) diamond (or a 7). So he is probably way behind (free card doesn't hurt) or just made his draw (you want a free card).

I guess I could speculate about possible river scenarios, but i think this is enough for now.

-muz

xorbie · #3 04-01-2005, 03:03 PM

I think it's quite possible he has TT/JJ and is just about done with this hand. QQ would suck for you. KK or AA is also possible here, as is a flush.

Given that he has 22% VPIP, he's probably not the type to raise with Ax[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or SC in MP so I'd say the only way he has a flush is with AK, AJ, KJ or JT. The last three are possible, it's hard to say without knowing what his PFR is.

I think I probably check behind here. It might seem weak, but what hands of his could conceivably still hold a strong draw that hasn't hit? The only way this is possible is if he has TT-AA with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as one of them.

Tough choice, but I think I check behind to try to induce a bluff out of AA/KK on a brick river.

muzungu · #4 04-01-2005, 03:17 PM

While I'm still looking at this one... note that MP (the preflop raiser) folded on the flop, and UTG+1 (limp-called preflop) called.

-muz