Right Play?

Spellmen · #1 12-30-2004, 07:40 PM

Sorry I can't find the hand history, but I will try to describe it as best as possible. Party $25 PLO.

I am dealt Ah Kh Jc Ks in mid position with $23.
Flop comes 7h 2 3h.

UTG bets pot, $3.8. He has been playing really badly so I think he has two pair.
Cold call behind him (I think), and then a pot reraise ($15 or so). I am sure that the coldcaller will fold. I can pretty confidently put the reraiser on top set, maybe mid set at worst, so I know that if a non board pairing heart falls I will take a pretty big pot. After thinking for a little, I fold. UTG calls the reraise and is all in. Qh falls on the turn and the reraiser takes the pot with trip 7s. Was I right to fold this? For reference UTG had about $15, coldcaller had around the buy in, and reraiser had about $60

Jofer · #2 12-31-2004, 04:14 AM

I'm having trouble figuring your pot odds, but it looks like you'd be mostly all in if you called? you're getting decent odds, 9 outs, so 2-1. give it a call and double through [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Cleveland Guy · #3 12-31-2004, 09:49 AM

I'm going to nit pick here, but you have 10 outs - 2 times.

I wouldn't count the 2 of hearts as an out, but I would count the 2 kings that would help you.

So you have 10 outs - 2 times - or 20 outs if you are going to see the turn and river.

20/45 = 44% to win the pot.

If you are sure that UTG will call all in, then you do have pot odds to call.

If you are unsure about UTG - then your putting your $22.50 at stake to win $3.8 +$3.8 +15 + 7.5 (I'll assume the raiser would call your all in)
so its 22.50 to win 30.1.

So if you don't know about UTG it's close ~1.33 to 1.27. If you are sure UTG would call then yes you should have called.

Do my number make sense?

Spellmen · #4 12-31-2004, 03:13 PM

Yes, I can follow the numbers. Almost the exact same situation came up a couple hours later. Party $25, everyone involved was right around the buy in I have Ad Jd K x, flop comes Qd 8d 2. I am on the button and UTG raises pot of $4, it gets reraise to like 17, then an allin, and another allin. Once again I am sure someone is holding J 10 9 x and other holding QQx, so I would would have to put in $22 to win $22 + $22 + $22(i'm certain with the way UTG is playing he will also go all in which he does). Turn is a 2 and I know I'm toast [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Cleveland Guy · #5 12-31-2004, 04:04 PM

This is why I don't think I could ever play PLO at Party -

$25 Max buy in with a $.5 BB?

At least I get a $50 Max Buy in for my $.5 BB

Big Dave D · #6 01-01-2005, 06:55 AM

This maths is way wrong. Calculating PLO odds is always more tricky, as lockout cards are nearly always a factor. Until you get to grips with it, I would just use twodimes instead.

gl

Dave

Poker Blog!

juniperdruid · #7 01-01-2005, 03:53 PM

This is a bad spot to put your money in. When you have an over pair + a flush draw, one could argue you have 11 outs, but they are wrong. 10 outs is only correct for the flop. You have 9 sure outs in reality, 7 on the flush draw (2 hearts will pair the board, 1 on flop, and 2 going to the river), and 2 on the set, but the problem is, when you have said flush draw vs. a set, you are a 3-1 dog. Unless you are getting 3-1 from the pot, or 3-1 from implied odds, then you should chase. But if you are not, it is an incorrect call. You are getting the 3-1 due to the effective odds of the opponent with the top set filling up. Chasing would have been a bad option, in my opinion. I dont want to be all in with a flush draw against a set, ever.