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  #1  
Old 11-28-2004, 12:51 AM
Monty Cantsin Monty Cantsin is offline
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Default Calling a raise in the big blind with AQ

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Button is loose and aggressive but not a maniac. He seems mostly reasonable post flop.

Preflop: Monty is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG <font color="purple">(call station)</font> calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 <font color="purple">(unknown)</font> calls, CO calls, <font color="CC3333">Button <font color="purple">(loose aggressive)</font> raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Monty calls, UTG <font color="purple">(call station)</font> calls, MP3 <font color="purple">(unknown)</font> calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
Monty checks, call station checks, <font color="CC3333">unknown bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">loose aggressive raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Monty 3-bets</font>, call station calls, unknown calls, <font color="CC3333">loose aggressive caps</font>, Monty calls, call station calls, unknown calls.

Turn: (13.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Monty bets</font>, call station calls, unknown calls, <font color="CC3333">loose aggressive raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Monty 3-bets</font>, call station calls, unknown calls, <font color="CC3333">loose aggressive caps</font>, Monty calls, call station calls, unknown calls.


Not sure if this is an overplay. I'd love feedback on all streets so far, especially the turn.

/mc
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  #2  
Old 11-28-2004, 02:04 AM
Rubeskies Rubeskies is offline
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Default Re: Calling a raise in the big blind with AQ

If UTG wasn't a calling station and I had a good chance of getting it heads-up or 3-handed I think about 3-betting this preflop. It might be for value as well though I doubt it.

As for the rest of the hand I like it. Because he is loose-agressive it could be an overpair, worse two-pair (maybe Q9s?), perhaps KQ, or an overplayed flush draw. I've been seeing more and more of the overplayed flush draws lately, even on the turn. The only thing that worries you is a set and I'm not ready to give credit to a LAG for a set just yet. I like the raises with his range of hands.

If the flush doesn't come in on the river I'm betting and calling a raise. If the flush comes in I'm check calling versus 3 opponents. If he raises a non flush card I'm only calling because I'm starting to get scared that he's had a set the whole time.
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  #3  
Old 11-28-2004, 03:05 AM
sfer sfer is offline
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Default Re: Calling a raise in the big blind with AQ

Some LAGs will slow down to constant aggression on the turn and if the button fits this profile I think you should bet and call the raise on the turn. Your hand is no longer vulnerable to 5-out draws so folding the other two isn't as big an issue.
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  #4  
Old 11-28-2004, 04:34 AM
Monty Cantsin Monty Cantsin is offline
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Default Re: Calling a raise in the big blind with AQ

[ QUOTE ]
Some LAGs will slow down to constant aggression on the turn and if the button fits this profile I think you should bet and call the raise on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I hadn't seen him get out of line post flop, so the turn raise definitely made me worried I might be behind AA or 99. But the 2 trapped callers made me want to keep betting.

I think I may have overestimated the times I'm good after he raises the turn.

Even if both callers continue calling, for me to have positive bet equity here the times I'm currently good plus the times I'm behind and draw out have to add up to more than 25%.

If I give myself just 3 outs (to compensate for the times he's got AA) then that's like 6.5%. Am I ahead 19% of the time here after he raises the turn? Probably not.

[ QUOTE ]
Your hand is no longer vulnerable to 5-out draws so folding the other two isn't as big an issue.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, and even more importantly, if I'm behind the button I don't want to pay to protect his pot. If I'm behind him I'll need to improve to something that beats whatever they're drawing to anyway. I didn't think of that.

/mc
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  #5  
Old 11-28-2004, 10:42 AM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Default Re: Calling a raise in the big blind with AQ

I would consider betting the flop hoping to 3-bet. This looks to be more profitable than checkraising:

1. You have a good chance of winning so every bet in the pot helps you.

2. Many opponents will stay in no matter what on this flop. Three bets is better than two bets.

3. Anyone who would fold to a checkraise is probably correct to do so. Trapping them for three bets is more profitable.

4. You may be behind and drawing in which case forcing out other drawing hands is probably not a good idea. You want their money padding the pot.

On the turn after he raises, possible hands are AA, QQ, 99, AQ, A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

That's 5 hands that beat you, 4 hands that tie you, and 4 hands you beat. Note the disparity in your outs versus his outs and this does not feel very good. I think it's time to play for overcalls. 3-betting and risking a cap does not seem profitable.
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  #6  
Old 11-28-2004, 11:31 AM
colgin colgin is offline
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Default Building a Pot v. Protecting Your Hand

StellarWind,

I hear what you are saying about the merits of betting with the hopes of three-betting. My question is how you balance this against the merits of trying to protect your hand from assorted gutshots that could be out there given the board. On the face of it this hand seems to be a textbook example of a situation where you would like to check-raise to protect your hand: pot is big; there are hands that you would like to fold which would be getting correct odds to call one bet but not two; and, you have reason to think you will get a bet from your right.

Is your overall view that the merits of three-betting and building a pot when you may have a significant equity edge outweighs the risk of potentially keeping in hands you could get to fold (and that you would like to fold). Or do you think that in addition to building a pot you may still be able to protect your hand if it is likely that you will get in a three-bet thus denying hands like gutshots the effective odds on that round and perhaps the immediate odds to call when it comes back to them for two more bets. Or are you just not concerned about the notion of "protecting your hand" in this particualr hand.

Thanks.

Colgin
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  #7  
Old 11-28-2004, 12:58 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Default Re: Building a Pot v. Protecting Your Hand

Overcharging someone for a draw is more profitable than forcing a correct fold. This follows directly from the fundamental theorem and in heads up play it is an absolute rule. If it's correct for him to fold a gutshot when confronted with calling two cold, then you make money if you contrive some way to make him pay two bets. It doesn't matter whether he puts them in cold or one-by-one.

The fundamental theorem has a limitation when applied to multiway pots. It's not useful for your opponent to make a mistake if you are not the one who benefits. In fact, there are situations where your opponent's mistake actually costs you money.

A trivial example of this would be an idiot SB who raises several players preflop with by far the worst of it. BB loses the full value of his free play whenever calling would be a mistake.

In the hand in question, I can't imagine a typical 3/6 opponent folding a hand to a checkraise where it would be correct to pay three bets to see the turn against TPTK.

The multiway exception also plays some role here. We may not have the best hand. If we are behind PFR's aces or kings, we benefit from any bets the other players put in because our draw gives us a share of the pot. But folding their outs is often useless because they may be drawing dead or thin to the hand we hope to make. We will have the best trips and the best aces up. Even a gutshot is a reduced threat because we cannot make our hands with the same card. The burden of gutshot outs falls disproportionally on the overpair.
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